To be or not to be part of the euro

Although there were no outward signs of political turmoil on the sedate streets of Copenhagen yesterday, opinion polls suggested…

Although there were no outward signs of political turmoil on the sedate streets of Copenhagen yesterday, opinion polls suggested that beneath the calm exterior a nation was wrestling with its conscience.

Denmark votes on Thursday on participation in the EU's single currency and the result, which looked a clear No last week, has now become too close to call.

The 12 per cent lead last week for the No camp seemed definitive and it looked as if the Yes people might be better engaged sitting out in deckchairs soaking up the last of the summer sunshine.

However, latest poll figures show the proponents of the euro gaining rapidly on those who wish to retain the krone. In the latest Gallup poll, published at the weekend, the No camp saw its lead reduced to a mere three points, at 46 per cent, to 43 per cent for its opponents.

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A Gallup poll carried out the previous day had shown a lead of 6 per cent for the Nos. Meanwhile, a poll carried out by the Vilstrup organisation gave the No lobby a lead of just one percentage point, down from four points the previous day; a poll from the Sonar group showed the No camp just two points ahead.

In each of the latest polls more than 10 per cent were undecided but the narrowing of the gap suggests that the "don't knows" are opting for the Yes side.

The 12-point lead for the Nos may have acted as a wake-up call for the pro-euro lobby, led by the country's Social Democrat Prime Minister, Mr Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, who has staked his reputation on the vote. Yesterday saw a rare show of political solidarity, with parties supporting a Yes vote turning up to a joint press conference at the Folketing or parliament.

More than just Denmark's full-blooded participation in the single currency is at stake. Since it was launched almost two years ago, the euro has been a sickly child which failed to thrive despite endless attention, fussing and encouragement. Indeed, it fell 28 per cent against the US dollar over less than 21 months. In a most unusual joint move, the world's leading central banks intervened last Friday to prop up the ailing currency and might have to do so again in the coming days or weeks. It may be that this vote of confidence by the world's economic leaders contributed to strengthening Denmark's Yes lobby.

Eleven member-states, including Ireland, have already joined the euro zone. However, if Denmark opts to stay out it will act as a major boost to the euro-sceptics in Britain, which has yet to join, and could result in a Swedish referendum on participation being postponed indefinitely.

A boost to the EU's "awkward squad" could threaten the future of the whole single currency project. It would certainly weaken the euro on currency markets with, if some commentators are to be believed, potentially cataclysmic consequences for the global economy.

Small wonder, then, that the eyes of the world are on Denmark. And if the fate of 370 million Europeans is in the hands of 5.4 million Danes, the fate of Denmark seems to be mainly in the hands of Danish women. Figures from the Sonar groupshow that 45 per cent of women were voting No, compared with 37 per cent for Yes.

With the female vote in mind, the Prime Minister was out on the streets of Copenhagen on Saturday, handing out roses to women passers-by. His party even organised a female social democratic roadshow, with about 50 women - including government ministers - touring the country by bus, visiting 37 cities and towns in a week.

While the Yes camp warns about isolation and a decline in Danish influence abroad, the No lobby highlights fears of losing sovereignty and national identity. But there are also bread-and-butter issues, with many voters concerned that closer tax and fiscal integration with the EU will undermine the exceptionally strong welfare state which Denmark has built for itself.

In a sense, Denmark is already part of the euro zone since it is tied to the D-mark and Germany is one of the 11 member-states who have formally adopted the new currency. The Yes lobby argues that, in staying out, Danes will still be subject to the fluctuations of the new currency but without a say in decisions on how it is administered. This technical argument, however, cuts little ice in what has been a highly emotional debate with one opposition leader warning: "The EU wants to close Denmark down as a nation."

Reports suggest that the prosperity and good health of the Danish economy is one of the reasons why the citizens are reluctant to have their leaders take a place at the top table in currency terms. Since joining the then-European Economic Community 27 years ago, Danes have been wary of further integration. They have held back on several occasions, most recently in 1992 when they voted against the Maastricht Treaty and only agreed to accept it a year later after four opt-out clauses, including one on European Monetary Union, had been negotiated.

Aware of this uphill struggle, Mr Rasmussen told reporters last week: "I will fight until the last hour, until midnight on the eve of the ballot, because I am convinced that it is for the good of the country."

It looks as if he will have to fight until the last minute, although the latest figures suggest it could just conceivably be worth the effort.