The coming of war to Taiwan is discussed in Taipei coffee shops almost as casually and with the same sense of near-inevitably as talk of the typhoons which batter the island every year. For many politicians, government officials and academics it's not a matter of whether communist China will take military action against its "renegade province" but when.

"It could be the calm before the storm," said Dr Yu-ming Shaw, deputy secretary-general of the ruling Nationalist Party (KMT). "My guess is that China has started work on a five-year plan [to invade]," said Dr Alex Kao, author of a book on Chinese military strategy. "Conflict is certain unless there is a political solution." The causus belli is the comment made by President Lee Teng-hui to German radio on July 9th that in future Taiwan would deal with Beijing only on a "special state-to-state relationship", a declaration Beijing inevitably saw as a move towards independence. In the six weeks since Mr Lee's statement, the military rumblings from the People's Republic of China have grown steadily louder. Chinese warplanes have flown right up to the centre of the Taiwan straits and Asian newspapers have reported rumours of planned missile strikes by Beijing against the island of 22 million people to which the defeated Nationalist forces fled 50 years ago.

There is speculation that preparations are being made by the 2.5 million strong People's Liberation Army (PLA) to seize small Taiwan-controlled islands.

So what was Mr Lee thinking about when he provoked Beijing's wrath by publicly defining Taiwan as a state rather than as a political entity - the ambiguous phrase used for years in exchanges between Beijing and Taipei?

Many commentators in Taiwan suspect it was aimed at boosting the chances of the KMT's rather colourless candidate, Vice-President Lien Chan, in next March's presidential election when Mr Lee steps down after 12 years in office.

Mr Chan, who supported the statement, has gained ground against the KMT's popular splinter candidate, Mr James Soong, who is less inclined to offend Beijing, and has stolen some of the pro-independence thunder of opposition Democratic Progressive Party candidate Chen Shui-bian. Others argue the statement was designed to head off American pressure on Taiwan to talk to China on the basis of Winston Churchill's dictum that "jaw-jaw is better than war-war".

This came especially from the US State Department's Asian policymaker, Mr Stanley Roth, who first urged Taipei on March 24th to reach an interim agreement with China on some difficult topics to avoid the loss of momentum in the long quest for a peaceful resolution.

Taiwan pays lip service to the idea of eventual unity with the mainland but officials are clearly reluctant to enter political talks with China as long as it is ruled by the Communist party and treats Taiwan as a domestic problem.

On one point almost all Taiwan officials and academics agree. Taiwan does not accept China's offer of a one country-two systems deal similar to, or even better than, that given to Hong Kong, to achieve unity. "Hong Kong was a colony whose lease had expired, we are a democracy," said deputy government spokesman Frederic Chang. "They say we can keep our army and flag, but when the deal is done China might impose its authority and take away some of the things it promised," said Dr Wu, who pointed out that "there is no outside guarantor". Whatever the motivation for Mr Lee's bombshell, the landmark visit to Taiwan by Beijing's negotiator Wang Daohan planned for October has now been put on ice. If the Chinese don't come for talks "actually it's not such a big concern for us", said vice-Foreign Minister, Mr Francisco Ou, who hoped nevertheless that Beijing's reaction would not alter regional stability "which is of serious concern to the stability of the whole world".

Few people in Taiwan would loose sleep if the unity talks were postponed until China became a democracy. "You can negotiate to sell your car but you cannot negotiate to sell your children," said Dr Joanna Chang, an international affairs professor in Taipei. Much intellectual energy is now being expended in Taipei in guessing what Beijing will do, and whether Taiwan's 400,000-strong army could withstand an invasion without US help. China is itself in a dilemma. An outright attack on Taiwan could provoke US military action, isolate Beijing internationally and draw down economic sanctions and a loss of investment.

Despite America's irritation at Mr Lee - the top US America's top military commander in the Pacific, Admiral Dennis Blair, told Congress members that Taiwan was crapping in the "punch bowl" of US-China relations, Washington is committed to providing Taiwan with adequate means for self defence. A PLA defeat could mean the loss of Taiwan forever. China could blockade Taiwan, which conducts 99 per cent of its trade by sea and thus could wreak havoc on the booming economy, but this also could provoke US intervention in the form of naval escorts. If the PLA did seize some small islands, it could be branded a rogue state and lose its reputation as a peaceful international partner. Any military action or threat would also boost the presidential election chances of the KMT candidate over Mr Soong, who is Beijing's best bet for reaching an accord. In these circumstances conspiracy theorists in Taiwan are having a field day.

"Lee is betting that China is not powerful enough to defeat Taiwan and that it will launch a premature war now which 15 years from now Taiwan would have no chance of winning," said Dr Kao.

Government officials deny they are moving closer towards independence. "We are still committed to unity with the mainland," said Mr Frederic Chang, "but it has to be a democratic process."

The statement of President Lee was "not designed to end negotiations but to put Taiwan in a more favourable position", said Dr Wu, but "is unification a long-term goal? Probably not". If there is a consensus in Taipei it is that any military action by China will not come until after the March election. The optimists are taking heart from a comment by China's Vice-Premier Qian Qichen on Tuesday that he hoped the two sides could open political talks, first on ways to end hostility and then on unification "after the storm ends". But for the moment China wants the Lee statement rescinded and the storm is still raging with the fury of a Chinese Sea typhoon.