Reasons to be cheerful about the political situation in Northern Ireland are hard to find just now. At the time of writing the level of violence is still much lower than at many times in the past. Mainstream republicans and loyalists are still on ceasefire, although there are suspicions that elements of loyalism may be operating under flags of convenience. The Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein are still miles apart on decommissioning, but the communications channel between them is wide open, and relations, if not warm, are at least civil.

That's as far as the good news goes. There is a black mood in the republican community. One leading activist said recently: "The Good Friday agreement is dead, long live the peace process." Certainly, prospects for implementing the agreement look slim at the moment. Following the Hillsborough Declaration, reaction from grassroots republicans was angry and bitter. Their own leaders got it in the neck, at football matches, church gates, in public houses. There were early-morning phone calls to demand: "What the hell is going on?"

After all the spins, misinformation and wishful thinking, it seems to have finally come home to the Dublin administration in particular that the republicans cannot deliver decommissioning in the short term: their own supporters would not let them. While some of the ideas in the Hillsborough text had possibilities, especially the suggestion for a collective act of reconciliation, with hindsight it was unwise to publish the document, especially at Easter, the most sensitive time in the republican calendar.

The notion that the SDLP could go it alone, forming an executive with the unionists but minus Sinn Fein, was knocked smartly on the head by British government sources this week. "Let's deal with political reality," they said. A similar point was made strongly at Stormont last week by the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue. This is an inclusive process, and there is no question of pushing anyone overboard.

This week's round of talks involving the two prime ministers and the main parties achieved little. Ideas on how to resolve the impasse are scarce. Both London and Dublin insist they are resolutely determined to keep trying. Next week looks like the last Big Push before the summer. If, as seems likely, no progress is made then the process will be gently parked for a few months.

There is a certain air of recrimination in Dublin political circles. There is a perception that "Bertie got it wrong" at Hillsborough and was even more eager than the British about pushing the republicans to deliver arms when they were not in a position to do so.

Questions are now being asked and fingers are pointing as to the source of the Taoiseach's faulty guidance, but no volunteers are coming forward to take the blame. Nor is anyone rushing forward to say, "I told you so": there are punishments for being right as well as being wrong. Everything started to go wrong after the Taoiseach's Sunday Times interview on February 14th - now known as the "Valentine's Day Massacre" - where he dished it out hot and heavy to the republicans on decommissioning.

But as Dr Mowlam has been pointing out, with resolute chirpiness, they haven't walked away, you know, and all the pro-agreement parties are still at the table. It seems the Northern Secretary will be in attendance at next week's meetings whether the unionists like it or not. This week she remained in Belfast with the smaller parties for a round-table session.

There was said to be some annoyance with the Women's Coalition in particular for "jumping ship" on the Hillsborough Declaration, and that may be one of the reasons the big parties were the only ones invited to London. However, the smaller groups received "conference calls" from the two prime ministers on Monday afternoon. By such stratagems is everyone kept more or less content.

"It's still the only show in town," official sources said bravely. Talk about "parking" or adjourning the process for the summer was "premature". Wait and see what comes out of next week, they said. Maybe the unionists and Sinn Fein would make a genuine effort at compromise instead of just "whinging" at each other.

But the mood is still downbeat. Republicans complain that David Trimble can agree to meet the Pope but has so far failed to meet his own constituents on the Garvaghy Road. Asked to paint the picture as they saw it, Dublin sources responded plaintively: "There is no picture at the moment. All we have is canvas."

Official sources said it was "mad" that the peace process should be endangered by what was essentially a matter of psychology and symbolism. There have been different interpretations of the fact that the two prime ministers spent just short of an hour with the unionist delegation last Monday and about two hours with Sinn Fein.

Some observers pitied Mr Blair who had to endure almost 45 minutes on the failings and mistakes of the two governments - especially his own - from various mid-level Sinn Fein representatives before the room was cleared, leaving the two prime ministers alone with Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness for an hour and a quarter.

The determination of Mr Blair and Mr Ahern is not in doubt. "The prime ministers want to crack it and would love to see it resolved," senior political sources said this week. With the European elections and Drumcree looming, there is little time to lose.