The most Irish Oscars ever: Who should win, and who will win?

It is, if anything, surprising that Ireland didn’t get even more excited about that record haul of Oscar nominations. Back in 1988, when Frank Deasy and Joe Lee’s The Courier premiered, the nation’s media had a minor conniption at the notion that an Irish film could do so much as exist.

Had, as happened this year, 14 Oscar nominations then gone the way of Irish talent and Irish films, the news would have triggered a collective apoplexy. Performers from these shores grabbed fully a quarter of the acting nominations. An Cailín Ciúin, a film in the Irish language, is up for best international feature. Did that just happen?

And the world noticed. In 2016, when Brooklyn and Room accumulated seven nominations between them, international media was notably short of “The Irish are coming” stories (probably because Room’s Irishness was not conspicuous on screen). This time round, Variety, the Guardian and the New York Times all obliged.

It is only natural that disappointment would set in. In the aftermath of the nominations, the nation’s social media was positively salivating in anticipation of the British appropriating Irish talent. “How long before BBC claims c farell. Bet he will then be irish again if he loses,” a thousand hilarious wags posted. Our neighbours proved largely unobliging. The Guardian did classify Paul Mescal as British in an early report before quickly correcting. The BBC claimed the same actor in one (1) briefly glimpsed caption that, after being captured on a latter-day Zapruder’s smartphone, triggered an apology and a riot of intermittently convincing fury. And that was pretty much that. Oh well. Saoirse Ronan is in a few prestige films this year. We may get opportunities for recreational outrage before Christmas.

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As the season wore on, more serious discontents emerged. Might no Irish personnel win? Might The Banshees of Inisherin convert none of its nine nominations? Neither scenario is out of the question. A force that had been lurking in plain sight for a good six months before Banshees premiered looks set to sweep all aside.

We will get back to that, but it is worth again considering how the Irish talent got to this place. The long answer takes in the success of My Left Foot at the Oscars in 1990, the (perhaps not unrelated) reconstitution of the Irish Film Board in 1993, the introduction of tax breaks for film production and the growth of education in acting and production. The short answer begins, somewhat refreshingly, with two old-school institutions: the film festival and the film media.

In all the chatter, it has not been much noted that the three most powerful European festivals launched the films that delivered the bulk of Irish nominations. An Cailín Ciúin began its long journey at the Berlin Film Festival a little over a year ago. Aftersun, for which Mescal received his best actor nomination, arrived to Critics Week at Cannes — one of the quieter strands — with little fanfare before picking up ecstatic reviews that slowly edged the actor into contention. The Banshees of Inisherin registered as a player at Venice when Colin Farrell won best actor and Martin McDonagh took best screenplay.

Nobody would, however, pretend that strategic thinking did not play a part. Speaking to this writer a few weeks ago, Cleona Ní Chrualaoí, producer of An Cailín Ciúin, explained the challenge.

“The first thing you have to do is to find a US distributor, that’s the key,” she said. “You can’t run an Oscars campaign without a US distributor. They’re the ones that hire the award strategist and the publicist. It’s about having as many screenings as possible in LA and New York with Academy members.”

An Cailín Ciúin ended up with Super Ltd, an offshoot of Neon, who won best picture with Parasite three years ago, and embarked on a campaign that eventually edged aside such fancied films as Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave and Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths.

The slippery nature of what is and what is not allowed was highlighted with the curious case of the “grassroots” campaign that, this year, elevated Andrea Riseborough to a best actress nomination for the barely seen To Leslie. Was there really anything wrong with her celebrity pals urging the world to vote for a long under-rewarded actor? The Academy eventually decided there was not, but many still complained — particularly after Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler, two fancied black actors, were shut out — that this is not how the game is usually played. Meanwhile, Brendan Gleeson and Colin Farrell, on the more traditional route, developed into the most ubiquitous double-act in Oscar history. If they were closer in age, we’d be begging for them to risk a Laurel and Hardy remake.

A little film called Everything Everywhere All At Once was waiting to upend hopes and expectations. Over the last few decades, it has become an orthodoxy that no film released earlier than October can win best picture. Last year’s triumph by Apple’s CODA, which hit cinemas in August, was dismissed as a phenomena unique to the streaming services. So when Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s science-fiction comedy landed to excellent reviews and healthy box office in March, the feeling was that, whereas it might deliver nominations for the likes of Michelle Yeoh, it had little chance of taking the big prize.

There now seems little chance anything else will triumph. Everything Everywhere won best picture at the Directors Guild of America and the Producers Guild of America. It then took best ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild. Those bodies, unlike the Golden Globes, are stuffed with people who actually vote at the Oscars. In the 28 years that PGA, DGA and SAG have given out prizes, only one film — Apollo 13 — has taken all three and failed to grab best picture.

The team behind An Cailín Ciúin will know they have a struggle to beat All Quiet On The Western Front in best international picture. No film listed in this category against a best picture nominee has ever triumphed, and the German film has the joint second-highest number of nominations. Nonetheless, it is remarkable to see the Irish film now quoted as second favourite — a longish 9/1 — way ahead of Cannes favourites such as EO and Close. The film has connected with international audiences like few other titles this year.

Oh well. Hardly any point staying up, right? Not so fast. In no other year this century have we reached the awards with three acting races in such a state of uncertainty. It looks as if Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson, up in best supporting actor for Banshees of Inisherin, can sit back and enjoy their evening. Nobody is getting past Ke Huy Quan in that race. First seen in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom nearly 40 years ago, the Vietnamese-American actor, nominated for Everything Everywhere, has a narrative that will survive his loss to Keoghan at Bafta.

Elsewhere, all is chaos. Brendan Fraser was installed as a favourite for best actor long before Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale even premiered. The former matinee idol was coming back from a long period of relative inactivity. He attracted sympathy after talking about a period of depression that followed physical health issues, a divorce and the death of his mother.

The Academy loves a transformation, and Fraser gets to play a 43-stone recluse. But The Whale was indifferently reviewed at Venice. Colin Farrell picked up best actor at the same festival for a more critically acclaimed film and it looked as if we had a three-horse race, with Austin Butler, vivid as Elvis in Baz Luhrmann’s eponymous biopic, retaining the leading-pack spot he claimed at Cannes.

Sadly for the boys in green, Colin failed to get past Butler at Bafta — essentially a home game with Banshees being a British co-production — and lost out to Fraser at SAG. So, it does look like a battle between the two Americans.

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Cate Blanchett was winning next to everything for Tár until, in the final lap, Michelle Yeoh passed her out with SAG and the Independent Spirit Awards (at both of which Everything Everywhere broke records for the most wins ever). Those two are now neck and neck, with Yeoh marginally ahead at the bookies for the first time in this long race.

The best chance for an Irish actor this year is surely in best supporting actress. Angela Bassett, solid in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, looked like an unstoppable favourite for a “career” Oscar, but losses to Kerry Condon, from Banshees, at Bafta and Jamie Lee Curtis at SAG for Everything Everywhere have upended the competition. Condon is back in the race.

Somewhat overlooked in all this have been Richard Baneham, from Tallaght, who will surely a take a second Oscar for his visual effects work on Avatar: The Way of Water, and Jonathan Redmond, from Sandycove, who has an outside chance of an editing prize for Elvis.

Tom Berkeley and Ross White, directors of An Irish Goodbye, are joint favourites in the best live action short. The two men have enjoyed being part of the Irish wave. “It’s unbelievable,” White, a Belfast native, told The Irish Times from Los Angeles. “And we recognise humbly our place as a very small part of that. There is a real sense of solidarity, of being part of a group. The An Cailín Ciúin team have been so generous. They have been doing this for a while longer than us.”

All nominees approach a ceremony that, after poor reviews and Will Smith’s bizarre attack on Chris Rock last year, will be under close scrutiny for signs of decrepitude. Aware that the centenary looms in just five years, the organisers have scratched gimmicks such as the absurd Twitter polls and gone back to presenting all the awards live. While not exactly a thrilling choice of host, Jimmy Kimmel is a solid performer who remained admirably calm during the fiasco that saw La La Land wrongly awarded best picture in 2017. All very safe and unthreatening.

The odd rise of Everything Everywhere All At Once should, however, allow the organisers something like a connection with the incoming Zeitgeist. The film may not be to everyone’s taste, but it is a genuine hit that plays well to younger audiences without needing to visit DC or Marvel universes. An organisation that has struggled so hard with accusations of unconscious racism will be happy to see so many Asian professionals on stage.

The best advice for winners came, perhaps, from Eddie Murphy at the recent Golden Globes. “It’s very simple,” the veteran quipped. “Pay your taxes, mind your business and keep Will Smith’s wife’s name out of your f**king mouth!” Nothing like that could happen again. Could it? It is, perhaps, worth tuning in just in case.

Oscars 2023: Who should win and who will win

Best picture

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. Should win: Tár. A loss for Everything Everywhere would now be the greatest best picture upset this century. But Todd Field’s Tár is the adult pick.

Best director

• Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
• Todd Field, Tár
• Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert. Should win: Todd Field. Some class of sweep looks on for the Daniels.

Best actor

• Austin Butler, Elvis
• Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brendan Fraser, The Whale
• Paul Mescal, Aftersun
• Bill Nighy, Living

Will win: Austin Butler. Should win: Bill Nighy. It feels as if unease about The Whale will hold Fraser back in his race with Butler for the less controversial Elvis. Nighy offers a masterclass in Living.

Best actress

• Cate Blanchett, Tár
• Ana de Armas, Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
• Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Michelle Yeoh. Should win: Cate Blanchett. It now looks as if the wind is behind Yeoh. Blanchett is in her element as the appalling Lydia Tár.

Best supporting actor

• Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
• Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Ke Huy Quan. Should win: Barry Keoghan. The Everything Everywhere momentum will carry Quan along. Keoghan deserves his moment.

Best supporting actress

• Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Hong Chau, The Whale
• Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Angela Bassett. Should Win: Kerry Condon. The urge to pass Bassett a “career award” may prove irresistible. Condon is the steady, beating heart of Banshees.

Best adapted screenplay

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking

Will win: Women Talking. Should win: Living. Sarah Polley will get a deserved Oscar for Women Talking. Living is equally exquisite.

Best original screenplay

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

Will win: The Banshees of Inisherin. Should win: Tár. Inisherin should just about hold off the Everything Everywhere surge here. Tár is the more original work.

Best international feature film

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Argentina, 1985
• Close
• EO
• An Cailín Ciúin

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front. Should win: An Cailín Ciúin. You know about An Cailín Ciúin. Western Front looks unbeatable, though.

Best documentary feature

• All That Breathes
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
• Fire of Love
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny

Will win: Navalny. Should win: All That Breathes. The politics of Navalny, study of a Russian opposition leader, will suit the academy. But All That Breathes is transcendent.

Best animated feature

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. Should win: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On. The academy just loves del Toro, but that film does not have the emotional pull of the lovely Marcel the Shell.

Best cinematography

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
• Elvis
• Empire of Light
• Tár

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front. Should win: Tár. Western Front has the clutter and flash in the technical races. But Tár has a quieter elegance.

Best editing

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. Should win: Tár. Everything Everywhere is on a roll and it, at least, competes for the most editing.

Best sound

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will win: Top Gun: Maverick. Should win: Top Gun: Maverick. Vroom, vroom. Bang, bang.

Best visual effects

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will win: Avatar: The Way of Water. Should win: Avatar: The Way of Water. Whether you like it or not, the “world-building” in Avatar is an achievement.

Best original score

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front. Should win: Babylon. The electronic throbs in Western Front are persuasive. Babylon is golden-age oomph.

Best original song

• Applause, Tell It Like a Woman
• Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick
• Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Naatu Naatu, RRR
• This Is a Life, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Naatu Naatu. Should win: Naatu Naatu. RRR’s only nomination may generate sympathy votes.

Best costume design

• Babylon
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Mrs Harris Goes to Paris

Will win: Elvis. Should win: Babylon. Catherine Martin should get her third for Elvis. But Babylon’s gowns were fab-u-lous.

Best makeup and hairstyling

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• The Whale

Will win: Elvis. Should win: The Batman. It’s Tom Hanks’s ugly bloke in Elvis versus Colin Farrell’s ugly bloke in The Batman. I go for the latter.

Best production design

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans

Will win: Babylon. Should win: Babylon. Though not well received, Babylon could end up an “Oscar-winning film”.

Best documentary short

• The Elephant Whisperers
• Haulout
• How Do You Measure a Year?
• The Martha Mitchell Effect
• Stranger at the Gate

Will win: The Elephant Whisperer. Should win: The Martha Mitchell Effect. Netflix’s nature doc is lovely, but the late Martha Mitchell is a hoot.

Best animated short

• The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
• The Flying Sailor
• Ice Merchants
• My Year of Dicks
• An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Will win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. Should win: My Year of Dicks. The Boy… is beautifully made, but drippy. My Year of Dicks is a blast.

Best live action short

• An Irish Goodbye
• Ivalu
• Le Pupille
• Night Ride
• The Red Suitcase

Will win: An Irish Goodbye. Should win: An Irish Goodbye. Tom Berkeley and Ross White’s sentimental film has a great turn from James Martin