AS a keen student of history, Bill Clinton knows that second-term presidents often get into trouble and leave office with damaged reputations. In recent times, Nixon, Eisenhower and Reagan met this fate.

Clinton has been reading the inaugural speeches of second-term presidents for inspiration, or to see what to avoid when he delivers his address to the American people on the steps of the Capitol on Monday. The nitty-gritty of what he wants to do in the next four years can await his State of the Union address in several weeks, but his inaugural speech is expected to offer his vision for the country as he leads it into the 21st century.

Inevitably we will hear about "building a bridge" to the new century. It was the slogan of his re-election campaign.

People who have been talking to him say that Clinton will use his inaugural speech to emphasise the special character of the American people. He will celebrate peace and prosperity, but will warn against being lulled into passivity at home or abroad.

The historian Arthur Schlesinger Jnr says Clinton's second term "offers at once the potential of greatness and the potential of humiliation".

A panel of 32 historians recently rated Clinton as average among the list of presidents since George Washington. The categories were great, near great, average, below average and failure. Two of the 32 judges rated Clinton as near great but another two voted him a failure.

Curiously enough, the book published this week by Clinton's former political strategist, Dick Morris, features an exchange between the two men on presidential greatness and where Clinton could end up.

Under Morris's rankings, Clinton cannot be in the "first tier" with Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Wilson and Roosevelt because they did great things, but also in "great times" of war or grave crisis. Morris told Clinton that at present he is "borderline third tier".

Clinton agreed but wanted to know what would make him second tier, assuming that there would be no war or crisis to make the first tier. Morris listed "three big things and four medium things".

Clinton got his pen and paper to write them down. The big things are: welfare reform, balancing the budget and defeating terrorism by military action and economic sanctions against terrorist states.

The medium things are: reducing smoking, especially among the young; higher education standards; better health care; and improving people's life styles through presidential actions not needing congressional approval.

Clinton called it a "good list" and said he would "think about it a lot".

HE HAS already dropped hints that he sees a Republican predecessor, the feisty Teddy Roosevelt, as a model for the way he used the presidency as a "bully pulpit" to promote his vision for America. Roosevelt helped push the US from a largely agricultural economy into the industrial age, but also protected small people by limiting the monopoly powers of the "robber barons".

Clinton sees his role as bringing America into the information age of the 21st century.

Raising educational standards and increasing literacy among poor children is part of this vision. He could yet qualify for the title of "Education President", Schlesinger believes.

While balancing the budget and eliminating the deficit are high on Clinton's agenda, they does not appeal to him as ensuring his place in the history books.

His press spokesman, Mike McCurry, has spelled it out. "Clinton's chapter in the history books will not be `Here's the guy who balanced the budget'. It will be `Here's the guy who awakened America to the leadership possibilities of the 21st century'."

Leadership in foreign policy has to be one of these possibilities, but how? "Clinton may have his best opportunities for making a mark by making peace," says Schlesinger. "Peace-making has already developed as a major theme in his foreign policy. It's one he would be wise to pursue."

Clinton has also heeded the warning of his outgoing Secretary of State, Warren Christopher, about a "new isolationism" emerging in a Congress that will demand further cuts in the foreign affairs budget.

AFTER four years of cuts in foreign affairs expenditure imposed by Congress, Clinton is getting ready to fight back. He will seek a 5 per cent increase to $19.3 billion in the new budget and seek to pay the arrears in US dues to the United Nations. But will a Republican Congress suspicious of UN profligacy go along? And how hard will Clinton fight?

Battles with Congress loom over reform of the Medicare and social security systems for pensioners. They may not have the glamour of foreign policy triumphs, but they are areas of vital concern for America's ageing population.

This could yet make Clinton a "great" among the presidents. As McCurry puts it: "We want people to read in their history books in 2052 that Clinton preserved the social security system".

The big problem for Clinton to achieve greatness is that he faces a hostile Republican Congress determined to win back the White House in four years' time. Little of the agenda Clinton has set out for himself in his second term can be accomplished without Congressional approval and this is why he has been preaching "bi-partisanship" since his re-election.

At present the climate on Capitol Hill is not favourable to such co-operation. The Democrats are still working for the downfall of Speaker Newt Gingrich. The Republicans are gearing up for a series of investigations into the abuses in fund-raising from Asian sources in the Democratic election campaign. Whitewater and Paula Jones can resurface at any time.

In less than two years' time, Clinton risks being regarded as a lame-duck President as the midterm Congressional elections get under way and Vice-President Al Gore manoeuvres for the succession.

All this will weigh heavily this weekend with Clinton as he polishes his inaugural address. In spite of the present economic boom, most polls show Americans pessimistic about improvements in the social areas of drugs, crime, poverty, health-care and racial conflict in the next four years.

They will want to hear inspiring words from the steps of the Capitol on Monday on how William Jefferson Clinton will make life better in America, but will be sceptical about his deeds.