THE three men sitting last week in the living room of Patsy Gibney's house at Bobsville, Crossakeel, Kells, Co Meath, had fattened and sold nearly 6,000 cattle last winter and early spring.

Patsy and his neighbours estimate that the prices they received for their animals were £140 less than in the previous year and they don't know if they will fill their cattle sheds in autumn again, such is the sense of gloom caused by the BSE crisis.

"Its worse than bad but it is the uncertainty that makes us wonder about the future," said Patsy, who is one of the best known farmers in the country.

"We are particularly hard hit because we work on tight margins and we also have no rights to produce like other producers of milk or suckler cows," he said.

"When I go out to buy animals I "have to buy their EU premiums as well, even though I have no entitlement to produce. Fattening cattle in the winter is not like producing milk or having a suckler cow premium," Patsy said. "Even before the BSE crisis things were not too good for us but think that the crisis has put the nail in our coffins."

"I don't know what level of losses I have incurred to date but I know that I have lost money this year and there is no debating that," he said. "But there is a knock on from what has happened in the beef sector. Things I had planned to do this autumn will now have to wait."

He had planned on building a large slurry tank at one of the fattening sheds on the farm, but that has now been scrapped.

One of his neighbours said he had cancelled the annual order for fertiliser on the basis that he might not go back fattening again this winter. Already, their indecision is feeding its way back into the local economy. Contractors will not be building sheds with materials from the local hardware stores.

The mills and local co-operatives which supply the feed for their cattle will not be delivering to the Crossakeel area this autumn. Machinery which had reached its replacement date will remain on the farms and there will be no contracts to take extra silage cuts.

All of them agreed that they will not buy any store cattle to fatten this winter until it becomes much clearer where their business is going, "People look at people like Patsy and myself and say they are big operators why should we worry about them They are forgetting that what we do or don't do works its way back down the system," a neighbour remarked.

One man who knows what is happening is James Moran, who runs a mixed farm near Ballinasloe, Co Galway, and sells most of his stock to bothers to fatten them for the market. James (this is not his real name because he fears the banks may fore close on him) faces ruin this autumn.

"I have 29 suckler cows and I normally keep their calves for about eight months. I normally buy in some store cattle and feed them on the summer grass and sell them on as later in the autumn when the grass runs out," he said.

"This year, I purchased 40 store cattle in early March and when the broke I discovered that if I wanted to sell them I would drop £200 a head. I borrowed and I am not going to be able to repay," he said.

He said his weanlings are not yet ready for sale and his money and grass are running out. "No one knows what price weanlings are going to make or if it's worthwhile holding on to them to see if they will improve. I am selling some of the stores but I will lose heavily on them."

James produced his bank statements and books which are prepared by his wife, Mary, who works the 125 acre farm with him. The statement shows that he is just under £60,000 in debt and his potential income will be less than £15,000.

"The bank is already on my back. I have missed two payments and they are threatening court action. I am afraid that they will sell me out and leave myself and Mary and the live kids on the side of the road," he said.

James, who is a full time farmer with no off farm income, had expected to make a profit of around £13,000 this year but now there is no possibility of this.

"I am in the Rural Environmental Protection Scheme and I have been due a cheque for £5,000 from the Department since May last but there is still no sign of it," he said.

James said his only hope is to borrow money from his brother, a Dublin civil servant, in the hope that he can hold on to the family farm.

ONE man who can feel the slowing pulse of rural Ireland is Anthony Leddy, chairman of Comhar Leader na hEireann the umbrella organisation for the 36 groups charged with rural development.

"The slow down is beginning to happen already. There is a great deal of uncertainty out there and if there is no healthy farming sector you cannot really have rural development."

He added that he feared for the small businesses in the country which are reliant on the agricultural sector and the services sector, which is in the same position.

"Anyone in the machinery business can tell you that their sales can be predicted by looking at the price of beef. They now know that sales are bound to drop this year," he said.

Farmers, he said, are putting off investment decisions because of the crisis and lack of cash flow. "The problem is that this crisis has not really worked its way through the system yet and it has the potential to cause untold damage to the fabric of rural society."

He said that when the calving season begins later in the year, the dairy farmers, who have not yet been affected, will find prices down and they too will have a cash flow problem.

"We will have to wait and see how things will pan out. But from a rural development point of view and the future of rural Ireland, things are not looking good," he said.