Paschal Donohoe on In the Long Run: Wise and beautiful work of political scholarship

After hours of grappling with political difficulties I was seated, over dinner, with a grizzled political colleague. I told the story of my woes. There is no ear more sympathetic than that of a colleague with experience of political crises but with the luxury of not being currently embroiled in one.

My friend sat back in his chair and with the serenity of a political survivor said: “It will be all right in the end ... and if it’s not all right – it’s not the end.”

There is a lifetime of political optimism packed into that deceptively simple encouragement. Two of its many assumptions deserve brief development. First, there is an open future that can be decisively shaped by human agency and decision. Second, that individual action has enough scale to create or influence this impact.

These are deeply important principles to our support for democracy. That our leaders can make a big difference to our future. That individuals, either by casting a vote or through personal behaviour, can make a difference to their future too.

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The relationship between time and politics is fundamental. How history is understood and portrayed shapes the political views of today. The promise of a better and different future is critical to how political leaders ask for the consent and support of voters.

The interplay between support for democracy and the prospect of what is to come form the theme of the wise and beautiful In the Long Run.

The author, Jonathan White, gets to the heart of this relationship quickly: “Democracy as we know it depends on the idea of continuation – of things not coming to a sudden end. Notions of an indefinite future have long been used by democrats to contend with democracy’s flaws.”

Voters assume, and politicians depend on, the abundance of time. This creates space for a problem to be fixed or a crisis to ebb. Faith that the challenge of today can be conquered depends on the belief that there will be a tomorrow, that there is still time to make a difference.

Democracies may face deep problems if the belief takes hold that time is scarce. If the crisis of today feels so overwhelming, belief in the possibilities of tomorrow will be reduced.

The tone and conduct of politics are then changed and support for representative democracy can be corroded. As White incisively notes: “The sense of finality that fills today’s world is central to its volatility.”

The length of time horizons into the future influence political visions. Destinations in the distant future simultaneously validate the optimism of transformative change and, also, the need for incremental progress towards this wonderful future. Champions of immediate action point to what can be achieved in the near future, asserting the value of urgent change.

This work teases out how a sense of future is created. The roles of imagination and rational calculation are contrasted. The conception of the future within fascism is analysed. An embrace of radical change combined with a rejection of the past is central to the allure of authoritarian leaders.

The strongest sections of this book are its concluding chapters. The embrace of consumerism and the rise of algorithms create the prospect of a more individualised future. The life of a voter could be subsumed into life as a consumer, making it more difficult to imagine a collective future. The author concludes that “an individualist society is likely to prioritise the present and near future, as the natural frame for individual desires and contributions”.

This era of the “polycrisis” is changing the perceived availability of time. As a cycle of crises is identified, governments can struggle to create a coherent long-term vision.

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This deepens the sense of imminent collapse. Every objective is presented as a non-negotiable imperative. Governments can lapse into either excessive managerialism or reckless populism. In either scenario “the desire to bypass institutions grows”.

Worry about our democratic future could be the most likely response from many readers. Hedonism might be tempting for a lucky few, due to the authority of this warning about the fragility of democratic order. That wonderful but ominous chorus by The Specials, “Enjoy yourself, it’s later than you think”, might be the background music for these readers.

However, nihilism is a luxury in these turbulent and dangerous times. This magnificent book reminds leaders to take care with the claims they make for the future. If the only future that democracies can look forward to is an era of perpetual crisis then leaders should not be surprised with the reaction of voters.

At the same time, this work reminds voters to think carefully about claims that promise easy answers.

This is a wonderful work of political scholarship. It is the book I hoped to write.

Paschal Donohoe is the Minister for Public Expenditure and president of the Eurogroup