Anything that David Runciman does not know about the philosophy of politics is probably not worth knowing. That is quite the assertion but his podcasts are models of elegant and accessible communication. Confronting Leviathan, his collection of essays on theories of the state, will soon be a classic text of political writing. The Confidence Trap is a wonderful analysis of the virtues and dangers of democracies muddling through crises.
Few are better equipped to understand the impact of artificial intelligence on our political future.
The Handover analyses the relationship between states, corporations and AI. These are all creations of humanity, but they could yet change what it means to be human.
The opening chapter is classic Runciman, contending that the state is an “artificial agent”. It has a number of unique qualities. The decision-making scope of the state is recognisably human. Both good intentions and human imperfections are always on display.
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But the consequences of state action are distinct as “any decisions it takes will have a scope far beyond anything that we are capable of achieving for ourselves”.
This is due to the durability and scale of state-made decisions. The establishment of social insurance systems can have century-long effects on health and wellbeing. Going to war has a dreadful breadth of consequences. The decision by a government to educate children can change the direction of societies.
No individual human, or no association of humans, possesses such powerful agency.
Runciman builds on a theory of the state from the English philosopher Thomas Hobbes. In his masterpiece Leviathan, published in 1651, he argued that the state possesses machine-like qualities. It operates through clearly established mechanisms, creating a long-term reliability and is not subject to natural decay. The state is also made by humans, but unlike a machine or robot, it consists of humans too.
This comparison is key feature of The Handover. The existence of the state is fundamental to the development of our societies, and its power creates a quality that is greater than the sum of its individual parts. The author concludes that “Having collective agencies that can take decisions and carry responsibility for those decisions is what has made our world possible”.
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An “artificial personality” is created that enables long-term commitments by individuals, communities and countries.
Corporations share some of these qualities, but not all. The creation of a limited liability company, capping the loss that owners can experience from business failure, also develops longevity and capacity for very large companies.
However, profound differences exist. Corporations depend on the legal framework created by states, the balance of power is clear. The functions of a corporation are very limited in comparison with those of the state.
This creation of artificial decision-making powers by states and capacities sets the scene for the development of artificial intelligence. This technology heralds a new era, when ‘”human experience will be upended again by new machines whose superhuman qualities will massively enhance what we can achieve”.
It is difficult to calibrate the level of change. This work borrows the Singularities framework developed by the futurist Ray Kurzweil.
The First Singularity is where science empowers humanity. The human condition changed due to the power created by technology over nature.
The Second Singularity is potential changes in the nature of humanity due to artificial intelligence. Our abilities will grow due to this technology. But we will also be vulnerable in the face of the powers of such intelligence.
Biological change might occur if our very capacities and life expectancies are augmented by robotics and synthetic biology.
This work reminds us that states and corporations are not powerless as we confront this vista of radical change. States, in particular, have a resilience and a power that will make them potent actors.
The future is entirely open.
However, further insights are elusive. This reader is left with the sense that the ideas in this book merit more maturation, that they are a little underdeveloped.
States and corporations ultimately do not have a life of their own. They do not exist independently of voters or shareholders. This argument is worthy of a bit more effort. The role of deliberative democracy or “intelligent politics” in this very different future requires more than a few paragraphs.
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Similarly, the nature of the relationship between states, corporations and AI is a fascinating question. Lengthier speculation on this theme would have enriched this work. This could have taken the place of the chapters on the future of work or on how the modern state supports economic development.
David Runciman is building up to something big. I enjoyed this book. But the sequel could be something very special.
Paschal Donohoe is the Minister for Public Expenditure and President of the Eurogroup
