My political outlook is defined by degrees of optimism. We can achieve progress in tackling any problem. However, while progress is always possible, this does not mean that every problem can be easily or fully solved.
Progress can always be made. Sustained, gradual progress can be transformational. But this same progress is not assured and it is absolutely not guaranteed.
My optimism for the longer term is, therefore, more qualified. After the searing consequences of the global financial crisis (it will always be global for me, there was nothing great about it), I am convinced that political, social and economic order can never again be taken for granted.
Little is permanent.
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To strain a metaphor, the glass is more than half full, but that glass is forged by great, albeit imperfect, human effort and you do not have to look too hard to see the cracks.
If the glass breaks, we begin again and fuse another glass.
Chronicles of political disintegration, therefore, are rebuffed by my optimism but strike a chord with my fears. End Times is a challenging, but necessary, read.
The track record of the author, Peter Turchin, is worryingly accurate. The author began his career as an ecologist, studying the population trends of beetles, mice, deer and butterflies. The use of computer modelling revolutionised his understanding of the fluctuations and trends in the size of these populations.
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He and his colleagues reapplied the same techniques to human societies. In 2010, he predicted that the United States would be afflicted with a sharp spike in political and social instability in the early 2020s. This came to pass with the attack on Capitol Hill.
This helps to make the case for a new discipline, for the application of Big Data techniques, to the study of history and consideration of our future. “Cliodynamics” originates from “Clio”, the Greek muse of history and from the study of dynamics, the science of change.
The conclusion for America is stark as Turchin argues that “Americans today grossly underestimate the fragility of the complex society in which we live”. The more general conclusion is similarly sobering. The lesson is that “people living in previous pre-crisis eras similarly didn’t imagine that their societies could suddenly crumble around them”.
This work assembles a diverse set of historical examples to support this claim. They include the pre-Civil War America, the collapse of the French medieval state and the War of the Roses.
Four structural causes of instability are identified in End Times. They are difficulties in the financing of the State, the impact of geopolitics and broad increases in poverty. The most notable feature of this work is the fourth cause of instability, which is described as “elite overproduction resulting in intra-elite conflict”.
Elites are broadly defined. They are the sources of social power, ranging from the obvious (the wealthy) to senior administrators and thought influencers.
A convincing case is developed that these elites have grown. In the America of the 1950s fewer than 15 per cent of people between 18 and 24 attended college. Today, two-thirds of youth in America study in college.
Elite over-production is then defined as “the balance of the supply of youth with advanced degrees and the demand for them”.
This argument is provocatively phrased and is likely to be highly resonant in times of rancour. But, I find it the least convincing strand of this book.
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Most western democracies have achieved levels of full employment. Developed economies can now offer a variety of jobs to any graduate. The elites, broadly defined, are hard at work.
It can be argued that many jobs, and the living standards they deliver, do not meet the aspirations of the graduates who hold them. That is undoubtedly true, but these are more historically familiar concerns regarding social mobility, and this analysis need not require the cladding of concepts such as “elites” and their over-supply.
Similarly, conflict between “elites” and a discontented majority appear more of a source of tension than conflict between differing monied and powerful groups.
Conclusions about the future are bleak. The author argues that the US is now on a path to a certain level of instability. He argues that “it is too late to avert our current crisis. But we can avoid the next phase of social breakdown in the second half of the 21st century…” through the fairer allocation of wages and earnings.
This is a sharply argued book. The punchy style and tone compensate for some weaknesses of argument. Ultimately, the risks are too convincingly described and too serious for End Times to merit anything but the most serious of consideration and debate.
Paschal Donohoe is Minister for Public Expenditure and president of the Eurogroup
