Nobody disputes that someone tried to burn down Coragarry Free Presbyterian Church in July. Or that someone broke five panes of glass in the Free Presbyterian hall 40 minutes away in Castleblayney over a month later. Or that there have been incidents over the years in the Cavan/Monaghan area affecting Presbyterian and Church of Ireland property.

But does this add up to orchestrated sectarianism in the South? Or even "ethnic cleansing", to use the language of Dr Ian Paisley?

The attempt to burn down the Coragarry church in the early hours of July 4th was clearly the work of amateurs. The only evident pre-meditation involved a box of matches. No accelerants such as petrol were brought to fan the flames or even a can of paint to daub triumphalist slogans. Nor was any great courage required.

The church sits on a small country road, with only a chicken farm on the hill opposite, a half-mile away across open country. The nearest settlement, the tiny village of Drum, whose immediate area is 90 per cent Protestant, is a mile and a half away.

Nonetheless, it was a determined effort. Investigators found three "seats" of the fire. The main source of the damage came from a small tractor which was set ablaze at the side of the church. This spread to a prefabricated building, a storage area for hymn books and Sunday school material, which was destroyed, and from that into the small kitchen and hall area, which were badly damaged.

The church structure itself escaped, although a cloth banner was set alight and a smallish hole in the carpet nearby indicates where another attempt was made. Neither took off. Smoke damage, however, is heavy; £100,000 worth, according to loss adjusters acting for the church.

With this evidence before them, the Garda investigators insist that they are not pursuing a sectarian or political angle. They believe it was vandalism. Still, the question remains why anyone would pick on a place like Corygarry, not even a village, miles from a main road to anywhere. And why would they leave containers of money behind, one with perhaps £100 in coins?

As ordinary Protestant church members are as susceptible to personal feuds as any other (a fact mentioned by several clergymen), there were early rumours that the perpetrators - "criminally minded and of the Presbyterian persuasion", as one local put it - themselves came from the area. But these were investigated and dismissed. After that, the focus fell on people straggling home that night from a disco in Cootehill. But although two men were arrested, they, too, have been ruled out. That investigation continues.

Then, over a month after the Coragarry attack, on a weekend night, five panes of glass were smashed in the windows of a Free Presbyterian hall just outside Castleblayney. Here, however, any suggestion of an emerging sectarian "pattern" is roundly dismissed by locals.

The incident happened on what was a routinely riotous weekend for Castleblayney, a town of 3,000 souls with two discos holding up to 1,600 people, 27 licensed premises and a public disorder problem. Rows are commonplace in the early hours, gardai are assaulted and windows, flower pots and bus shelters are routine targets. Things were no different on the night of the attack on the church hall, and two people will appear in court shortly on public order charges unrelated to the hall.

"This is not some sinister sectarian element at work," said an indignant businessman. "That hall is a building site at the moment with big stones all over the place. If you have a gang of young fellows heading out of town and looking for trouble and see these lovely big, new windows, what are they going to do?

"I'm not saying it's right but I'm telling you it's vandalism, pure and simple. Sure all churches everywhere are targets now."

Another refers meaningfully to the beautifully maintained little Frankford Presbyterian Church situated only a few hundred yards from the hall, recalling that the hall is being refurbished as a fully-fledged Free Presbyterian church. "Can't you see how someone might have got cross?"

Despite that, everyone here is anxious to emphasise the harmonious, supportive relations between all the established churches. They point to the long tradition of non-interference with the three Orange halls in the area or with Orange parades even at the height of the Troubles. The Rev David Nesbitt, a Presbyterian minister in Ballybay, firmly believes the latest incidents to be isolated. "I've lived here for 32 years, and certainly in my experience of Co Monaghan that is not typical of the way Protestants are treated," he said.

But the Rev Gordon Dane, minister of Corygarry, declares that there are "too many coincidences in what is going on now to say that it's just vandals at work". Yet his church - existing happily in Corygarry for almost the entire 30 years of the Troubles - has never suffered more than a stone-throwing incident or a slogan daubed on a wall.

Nonetheless this week his Moderator, Dr Paisley, broke the resolve of a lifetime and travelled south to meet the Taoiseach of the Republic, to insult the natives and make a general protest about attacks on Protestant churches south of the Border.

In doing so, he purported to be speaking for all the Protestant churches in the South; a misrepresentation that enrages other clergymen, among whom Presbyterians in particular are quick to remind one that he has no place in their hierarchy. A favourite Paisley mantra is that "when the line was drawn across Ireland, 10 per cent of those living in what became the Republic were Protestant. Now it's down to 2.5 per cent . . . What has happened is effectively ethnic cleansing."

It's the type of sweeping statement that leaves politicians, local people and clergymen of other Protestant churches squirming with embarrassment and anger. Mr Seymour Crawford, a Fine Gael TD and elder of Newbliss Presbyterian Church, agrees that "possibly more Protestants than Catholics left the area in the difficult period of the 1940s and 1950s".

He continued: "But my feeling is that a lot more Catholic families would have come back to the State to establish homes and businesses since we entered the EEC in the 1970s. I can name a dozen farmers around me that had to leave as young men for economic reasons and came back in the past 20 years to buy farms and businesses."

Although he lives within a few minutes of Drum and condemns those who carried out this "atrocity", he insists that he sees no sectarianism in day-to-day life: "But, of course, there will always be individuals who feel aggrieved on either side. You'll always have screwballs in any community."

Another problem with provocative statements like Dr Paisley's is that they silence those who have real, long-standing concerns.

The Rev Alan Synnott, the Church of Ireland rector of Drummully near Clones, has seen his little church hall suffer smashed windows, a firebombing and attempted arson. On August 24th a tyre filled with petrol was placed against the hall's main door and set alight, resulting in extensive smoke damage.

This year, too, a couple of the leaded panes in the church windows were smashed with ball-bearings, although locals believe that this was simple vandalism. But generally, says Mr Synnott, given the area's troubled history of Protestant families being forced to leave, one as recently as the early 1990s, it all adds up to "a certain unease".

He has remained silent up to now, he says, for fear of creating "a situation where counter-actions might result", but since speaking out has received "a very good hearing on the southern side of the Border, probably because I've been anxious to do so in a Christian, positive and passive way, as opposed to trying to stir things up.

"I have a little bit of anxiety about being swept along in this tide. I'm wary of political opportunism because what we really just want is for our public representatives to give us what aid they can and leave us to get on with our lives."

Members of the church body have already met quietly with the three local Oireachtas members, Mr Seymour Crawford, Mr Caoimhghin O Caolain and Dr Rory O'Hanlon, to discuss their anxieties. "I don't feel that any army council is sitting down, directing this", says Mr Synnott. "I believe it's the same phenomenon that has beset Roman Catholic churches in the North like Harryville. And there isn't a parishioner I've met who hasn't expressed extreme anguish at what has happened there."

As for Mr Dane's church at Corygarry, a claims process is already in train. Within two working days of the attack, a claim for £100,000 malicious damages had been submitted to Monaghan County Council by the trustees of the church, through Dublin solicitors, Corrigan and Corrigan. A week later, according to the County Manager, Mr Joe Gavin, a second claim for the same amount was filed, this time by the minister of the church, Mr Dane, as a trustee, through Clones solicitors, Murphy, Morgan & Co.

A layperson's reading of the relevant Act, however, suggests that the path may not be as smooth as it seems. For the plaintiffs to succeed, they must prove either malice (which means demonstrating that three or more were riotously involved in the attack) or that the attack was carried out by a member of an unlawful organisation.

Given that no one is even in custody to help substantiate the first requirement, the easier option would appear to be the second. For this to happen, a chief superintendent must certify that, in his belief, the deed was committed by two or more people on behalf of an unlawful organisation.

But if the Garda remains firmly of the view that it was a couple of vandals, it could leave the church trustees and their moderator in a quandary. If it hasn't already been settled by this week's historic meeting, the deficit just might entail another high-profile trip to Government Buildings.