Unemployment at lowest in two years

The number of people signing on for unemployment benefit fell to its lowest point for more than two years in October, according…

The number of people signing on for unemployment benefit fell to its lowest point for more than two years in October, according to figures released yesterday by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The numbers are the latest indication of an increasingly tight jobs market.

The seasonally-adjusted Live Register declined by 1,600 between September and October, falling to 162,100.

The drop, which compares to a fall of 800 in the same month last year, brings the numbers claiming dole to the lowest level since early 2002.

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When seasonal adjustments are stripped out of the numbers, the register was down 6.7 per cent, or 11,076 on October 2003.

This was the largest annual fall recorded since July 2001, and compares to an unadjusted annual decrease of 6.1 per cent in September this year.

The CSO said the numbers pointed to an unemployment rate of 4.4 per cent in October. By this measure, unemployment in the Republic stands at less than half the euro-zone average.

The CSO's most accurate measure of unemployment - the Quarterly National Household Survey - put the jobless rate at 4.6 per cent when it was last released in April.

The downward trend in the Live Register came as little surprise to economists, who have for some months been noting healthy income tax receipts and retail sales figures.

Both indicators are linked closely to the jobs market. Redundancy notifications have also been declining, although the pace of this fall slowed last month.

Mr Alan McQuaid, chief economist with Bloxham Stockbrokers, is now expecting 2004 to deliver a net jobs increase of 50,000 to the economy.

He believes a further 45,000 jobs will be created in 2005. Economists at Davy said they believe the downward trend in claimants will continue into next year.

The Labour Party's spokesman on enterprise, trade and employment, Mr Brendan Howlin, welcomed the drop in jobless numbers, but accused the Government of failing to deal with high unemployment in peripheral counties such as Mayo, Donegal and Wexford.

Mr Howlin called on the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Mr Martin, to put in place a strategy to address investment in these "pockets" of the Republic.

The Irish National Organisation of the Unemployed (INOU) also called for more to be done on job creation.

The organisation pointed to sizable redundancies announced at Bewley's in Dublin, Allergan in Westport, Co Mayo and Irish Ferries during the week.

"Such levels of redundancies are unfortunately a wake-up call to shift the sense of complacency that Ireland's economy is fully back on track," the INOU said.

A breakdown of October's unadjusted numbers showed that the biggest addition to the Live Register came in Waterford, where a jump of 16.4 per cent was recorded.

The register grew by 4.7 per cent in Kerry, the next worst-affected county.

The largest percentage decreases came in Leitrim, where the register shrank by 7.9 per cent, and in Limerick, where it fell by 7.1 per cent.

Details of the seasonally-adjusted figures showed that 900 men left the register in October, compared to 700 women.

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey is Digital Features Editor at The Irish Times.