Coincidence or not? The demands from the teaching unions for pay increases came on the same day as the Government published the Exchequer figures for the first quarter, indicating that a Budget surplus of well over £1 billion (#1.27 billion) will be recorded for the year as a whole. Whatever argument the Government puts up when faced with such claims, impecuniosity cannot be one of them.

The teachers' demands will be watched closely over the following weeks and will be crucial for the talks of a new national agreement to replace Programme 2000, which expires at the end of this year. Precisely what the teachers are seeking is not clear, but if, as it appears, they want immediate negotiations on higher pay ahead of the negotiations on a successor to P2000, then the Government will be likely to resist.

Any concession to the teachers would inevitably fuel demands from elsewhere in the public service for further "special" increases ahead of the P2000 norms, which would, some sources warn, leave the whole agreement in tatters and scupper any chance of a new deal.

The TUI members raised another difficulty by voting against their executive and demanding that the unions should not enter talks of a new national agreement on the basis of conceding productivity improvements for pay increases. Linking pay with productivity in the public service is a key part of the Government's strategy for the new pay talks.

The teachers clearly feel they have lost out under agreements dating back to the previous agreement - the Programme for Competitiveness and Work - and are looking enviously at the deals done by the Garda and the nurses.

The message emanating from the teachers' conferences is likely to be just a foretaste of what is to come, if the talks on a successor to P2000 get underway in earnest. A lot of groups feel they have not shared in the fruits of the recent economic boom and will press their case hard.

The strong Exchequer finances - and the high level of corporate profitability - mean that public and private sector workers alike will have a hard time managing expectations.

All the social partners are currently engaged in a plan being drawn up by the National Economic and Social Council, designed to set a blueprint for talks on a new programme. With this study likely to be completed sometime this summer, talks of the new programme will not get under way in earnest until October or November - if they get under way in earnest at all.