Tesla’s love of the number 500,000 should offer a warning for investors

Tesla continues to defy the doubters. The stock last week touched $650 (about €586) and its market capitalisation topped $115 billion – more than double that of General Motors and more than three times that of Ford.

Investors had plenty to cheer, with Tesla beating earnings estimates and predicting it would “comfortably exceed” sales of more than 500,000 electric cars this year. Upgrades to its Fremont factory will increase capacity for its Model 3 and Model Y to 500,000 units, the company added.

Investors can't get enough of Tesla right now, but the company has a history of throwing the number 500,000 about a little casually, notes the Financial Times's Alphaville blog. In 2016, the company predicted it would build 500,000 cars in 2018, but only managed half that amount. A year ago, chief executive Elon Musk promised Tesla would build 500,000 cars in 2019, before quickly backtracking.

Tesla has previously said its new German plant would produce 500,000 cars annually; that Tesla owners had saved 500,000 gallons of gas, and that it wanted to build a 500,000sq ft factory in San Jose. The list goes on, with a previous Alphaville post finding multiple other examples of Tesla's love of the number 500,000.

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In 2018, Tesla responded by sending congratulations to the FT on its “500,000th negative article about Tesla”. Today, investors appear similarly relaxed, but they should remember that a year ago, Musk predicted Tesla would be profitable going forward before announcing losses of $700 million just two months later. Buyer beware.