Stocktake: European market rebound can continue

In a calmer 2021, momentum is with Europe, with Euro Stoxx 600 set to make 7% gains

The bear and bull statues outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Photograph: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg
The bear and bull statues outside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Photograph: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg

The year 2021 is expected to be calmer for European stocks. The average forecast projects gains of 7 per cent for the Euro Stoxx 600, which would leave it still below pre-pandemic highs.

Still, bulls note that momentum is with Europe, seeing as November was the best month for European stocks in 45 years following a dramatic market rotation out of expensive growth stocks and into value names.

Strategists who expect that trend to continue tend to favour European markets over the US; those who expect technology stocks to resume their leadership role in global markets prefer the US.

That debate aside, 2020 was the worst year of European relative performance since the 1980s, notes Morgan Stanley; that poor performance, coupled with improving fundamentals and policy support, "could set Europe up for a strong bounce back next year".