The OECD's latest set of forecasts is to be welcomed. It paints a picture of a gradually slowing economy rather than any hard landing and if correct will mean a few more years yet of serious economic growth.

The Paris-based organisation does, of course, point to inflation and the booming housing market as potential problem signs, but its forecasts appear more realistic than the latest set from the EU Commission, which were criticised as politically motivated.

The OECD appears not to have too many worries on the overheating front, even allowing room for Mr McCreevy to make tax cuts in the upcoming Budget.

It does say that the cuts should be limited to what is needed to maintain social partnership, but that is an almost open-ended limit.

The Minister is also likely to be able to deliver on the organisation's other stipulation that he hold spending within his budgeted limits. While this may appear difficult on the surface he should succeed once the NTMA reveals £100 million-plus of savings on servicing the national debt.

While the forecasted slowdown in growth from 7.6 per cent this year to 5.6 per cent looks quite substantial, it is still significantly ahead of most other countries and is likely to be enough to keep us on top of the euro-11 heap.

The main reason for the slowdown in our growth will be declining inward investment, according to the OECD and declining export markets. These assumptions are made on the basis of estimated global growth of 2.1 per cent next year and 2.2 per cent in the EU. But even those low forecasts come with provisos. The OECD warned that another fall in world equity markets, a series of sharp currency devaluation, Japan's failure to solve its economic and banking problems and another round of emerging market turmoil are also risks.

If Mr McCreevy were to take all that to heart he might actually feel obliged to keep to his 5 per cent pay rises in the public sector next year. Or there again more magic savings may materialise.