The value of trade between the Republic and countries outside the EU fell sharply during June, according to new figures. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, imports from non-EU countries declined by 13 per cent to €1,455 million, according to data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

This is the lowest value since last September, when figures were heavily influenced by the dramatic slowdown in US commercial activity seen after the September 11th attacks. It stands about 15 per cent below levels seen at the start of this year.

Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist with IIB Bank, said that the imports figure could signal an approaching fall-off in the activities of US multinationals in the Republic.

"A lot of multinational enterprises source small but important imports from the US that would then go on to become exports," Mr Hughes said.

He believes that the June decline in imports, specifically from the US, could point to a break in that trend.

Unadjusted figures show that imports from the US in June this year were 14 per cent lower than in the same month of 2001. On a six-month basis, the year-on-year decline was 11 per cent, the fall largely attributable to lower levels of trade in machinery. "It fits in with the global story that the US economy was starting to turn down in May and June," said Mr Hughes. "The offshoots of US firms would be scaling back."

The seasonally-adjusted value of exports to non-EU countries in June was down 27 per cent on the previous month at €2,544 million, the extent of the fall largely attributable to a spike upward in the value of exports during May.

Mr Dermot O'Brien, chief economist with NCB Stockbrokers, declined to put too much emphasis on the drop. "These things tend to be a bit volatile," he said.

The Republic's non-EU exports are dominated by trade with the US, notably in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors.

Within this, a small number of firms monopolise the trade, with the result that a single erratic shipping date can cause a significant skew in the overall non-EU export figures.

When taken on a six-month view, the Republic's exports outside the EU between January and June fell by about 1 per cent on the same period last year, according to unadjusted numbers.

The most significant sectoral change over this period came in pharmaceutical products, where the value of exports rose by 63 per cent to €1,727 million.