Trump success has sparked major sell-off in bonds

In all the fuss after the election of Donald Trump, one thing has been glossed over but it won't stay that way for long. His success has sparked an extraordinary reversal in government bond markets, where prices have collapsed and long-term interest rates have soared. In Dublin Irish 10-year bond rates rose from under 0.7 per cent a week ago to almost 1 per cent now. Dealers privately believe they could go higher still.

Nor is this move driven on small trading volumes. There has been significant selling on bond markets across the world in recent days. Dealers in Dublin report heavy selling by what they call “real money” investors . By this they mean pension funds and insurance companies who hold bonds for a long-term return rather than just short-term speculative investors.

In simple terms, this is one of the most significant bond sell-offs of recent years.

The reason this is happening is that Trump’s policies are seen likely to reflate the US economy and thus lead to higher inflation. In turn this will push up interest rates. The era of super-low interest rates, in place since the financial crash, may be coming to an end.

This has many implications. One is that if bond interest rates keep going up it will cost the NTMA more to raise money. It has completed its financing for 2016 but will need to go to the market again in 2017. It may yet wonder whether it should have raised more this year. In turn this will have implications for the exchequer finances .

And what about borrowers? There is no reason to expect an early rise in ECB interest rates. But forward markets have changed significantly in recent day. An outside chance is now seen for a rate rise late next year.

The outlook still remains for a gradual rise in interest rates over a prolonged period. The euro zone economy is still weak, after all. But it has been clear for some time that bond interest rates had reached ridiculous lows. They remained there because nothing happened to change investor expectations. Now something has happened and the market is reacting. This is one to watch.