Stocktake: Bear market checklist is not flashing red

Strategists at Citi agree a global bear market is unlikely, but some regions are safer than others.

That’s based on Citi’s latest bear market checklist, which tracks 18 warning signs for investors, including factors such as valuation, sentiment, corporate behaviour, credit markets and profitability.

Prior to the 2000-02 bear market, 17.5 of the 18 signals were flashing red, and 13 were in the danger zone prior to the global financial crisis. Right now, there are eight red flags, so Citi is recommending investors buy the dip.

However, it’s clear the US market is in a riskier place right now. Valuation is a particular problem in the US, with four of the five valuation metrics flashing red. Overall, nine of the 18 indicators are in the danger zone, compared to just 5.5 in Europe.