US and European stock futures and the dollar surged on Wednesday, while bitcoin jumped to a record high as Republican Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election.
Fox News projected that Mr Trump has won the US presidency, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris and capping a stunning political comeback four years after he left the White House. Other media outlets have yet to call the race.
Analysts generally assume Mr Trump’s plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs, if enacted, would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields, than rival Democrat Kamala Harris’ policies.
US treasury yields shot to four-month highs. The dollar surged – putting it on track for its best one-day gain in over two years – while US equity futures were up almost 2 per cent.
“US treasury yields are rising sharply in anticipation that a Republican Congress will pass sweeping tax reform and tax cuts to create conditions for a favourable investment climate in the United States,” said Ben Emons, founder of Fedwatch Advisors in Washington DC. “With uncertainty seen as negligible, there is a relief rally in liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto and economy-sensitive assets like small caps.”
In early European trade, concern that higher tariffs under a Trump presidency could deal the region’s economy a fresh blow pushed the euro down 1.7 per cent to $1.074, while euro zone government bond yields fell sharply with German two-year bond yields down 10 basis points at 2.19%.
Money markets priced in lower European Central Bank rates meanwhile.
“For European businesses, Trump’s return to the White House would mean considerable trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty, with negative implications for growth on the Continent,” said Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding.
Euro zone stock futures however rose sharply, tracking their US peers.
Japan’s Nikkei surged over 2.5 per cent as the yen slid, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.9%.
While markets were still confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday., futures for next year eased into the red with December down nine ticks.
“As Trump’s policies in trade tariffs and tax cuts may lead to higher inflationary pressure and a wider fiscal deficit, the Fed may be less dovish than before,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis in Hong Kong.
Yields on 10-year treasury notes jumped to a four-month high of around 4.47 per cent, from 4.279 per cent, breaking last week’s top of 4.388 per cent. Two-year yields climbed to 4.31 per cent, from 4.189 per cent late in New York.
“If we look at the long end of the curve, that reflects the fact that both candidates are not exactly fiscal conservatives, they're both willing to use the fiscal printing press,” said Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions.
Currencies
In currency markets, the dollar index surged 1.5 per cent to 104.97, the biggest daily rise since early 2023. The euro slid 1.7 per cent to $1.0744, falling back from a one-month top of $1.0937 struck overnight.
The dollar jumped 1.5 per cent on the Japanese yen to 153.89 yen, and further away from a low of 151.34.
Bitcoin climbed to a record high of $75,397 and was last up 7 per cent on the day. Mr Trump is seen as more actively supportive of cryptocurrencies than Ms Harris.
The dollar gained 1 per cent on the offshore yuan to 7.1726 yuan, sparking reports Chinese banks were selling dollars to slow the yuan’s decline.
China is seen on the front line of tariff risk, and its currency in particular is trading on tenterhooks with implied volatility against the dollar around record highs.
Chinese stock markets have surged to almost one-month highs as investors expect a meeting of top policymakers in Beijing this week to approve local government debt refinancing and spending. Chinese blue chips lost early gains to turn flat.
Gold prices were choppy with a dip of 0.3 per cent to $2,734 an ounce, off a recent record peak of 2,790.15.
The sharp rise in the dollar pressured oil prices, and other commodities, as it makes them more expensive when buying in other currencies. US crude shed 1.35 per cent to $71.03 per barrel, while Brent fell 1.4 per cent to $74.47. – Reuters
