Asian shares slid on Monday as a mounting risk of more aggressive rate hikes in the United States and Europe shoved bond yields and the dollar sharply higher while also stoking fears of a global recession.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s promise of policy “pain” to contain inflation quashed hopes that the central bank would ride to the rescue of markets as so often in the past.
The tough-love message was driven home by European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel, who warned over the weekend that central banks must now act forcefully to combat inflation, even if that dragged their economies into recession.
That triggered a sharp fall in Euribor futures as markets priced in the risk the ECB could hike by 75 basis points next month and a higher peak for interest rates.
“The main takeaways are taming inflation is job number one for the Fed and the Funds Rate needs to get to a restrictive level of 3.5-4 per cent,” said Jason England, global bonds portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.
“The rate will need to stay higher until inflation is brought down to their 2 per cent target, thus rate cuts priced into the market for next year are premature.”
Futures are now pricing in around a 73 per cent chance the Fed will hike by 75 basis points in September and see rates peaking at 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent and staying there for longer.
Much might depend on what the August payrolls figures show this Friday. Analysts are looking for a moderate rise of 285,000 following July’s blockbuster 528,000 gain.
The hawkish message was not what Wall Street wanted to hear and S&P 500 futures were down a further 0.9 per cent, having shed almost 3.4 per cent on Friday. Nasdaq futures lost 1.2 per cent, with tech stocks pressured by the outlook for slower economic growth.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 2 per cent in the biggest daily drop in two months. Japan’s Nikkei dived 2.5 per cent, and South Korea 2.1 per cent.
Chinese blue chips lost 0.7 per cent, while Eurostoxx 50 futures slid 1.3 per cent in the wake of the ECB’s rate warnings.
The aggressive chorus from central banks lifted short-term yields globally, while further inverting the Treasury curve as investors priced in an eventual economic downturn.
Two-year US yields surged nine basis points to 3.489 per cent, the highest since late 2007 and far above the 10-year at 3.13 per cent. Yields had also climbed across Europe with double digit gains in Italy, Spain and Portugal.
All of which benefited the safe-haven US dollar as it shot to a fresh two-decade top of 109.450 against a basket of major currencies, breaching the previous high from July.
The dollar hit a five-week peak on the yen and was last up 1 per cent at 138.94, with bulls looking to re-test its July top of 139.38.
Sterling sank to a two year low of $1.1653 as Goldman Sachs warned the UK was heading for recession. The euro was struggling at $0.9920, and not far from last week’s two-decade trough of $0.99005.
“EUR/USD can remain below parity this week,” said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at CBA.
“Energy security fears will remain front and centre this week as Gazprom will shut its mainline pipeline to deliver gas to Western Europe for three days from August 31st to September 2nd,” he added. “There are fears gas supply may not be turned back on following the shut-down.”
Those fears saw natural gas futures in Europe surge 38 per cent last week, adding further fuel to the inflation bonfire.
The rise of the dollar and yields has been a drag for gold, which was down at $1,722 an ounce.
Oil prices swung higher on speculation OPEC+ could cut output at a meeting on September 5th.
Brent rose 89 cents to $101.88, while US crude firmed $1.08 to $94.14 per barrel. – Reuters
