Little appetite for Aer Lingus flotation

Many of Dublin's larger fund managers are unlikely to display huge appetite for an Aer Lingus flotation if the airline is brought…

Many of Dublin's larger fund managers are unlikely to display huge appetite for an Aer Lingus flotation if the airline is brought to the market in the near term.

High oil prices and a lack of long-term growth trajectory were cited by fund managers as reasons for avoiding the stock when contacted by The Irish Times.

One manager suggested that the firm had already "plucked all the low-hanging fruit" by achieving growth through shedding staff and expanding cheaply.

"It would have to be a very strong story," he said, echoing another manager who worried that the airline's business case would change for the worse if Ryanair began to fly from a new terminal in Dublin.

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A more positive view came from one manager, however, who said he would focus on the value in the transatlantic routes that Aer Lingus may be able to open in the future.

"It has access to a lot of very good routes which don't suffer low-cost competition," he said, describing a share offering as a "reasonably attractive" prospect.

Another said he was simply not in favour of airline stocks at the moment, given that oil prices were likely to remain high over the long term.

"There's a price for everything", was another manager's assessment of the matter, acknowledging that Aer Lingus was a solid turnaround story. "If it's at the right level, there would be demand," he said.

Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, is currently looking at future ownership options for Aer Lingus. This has involved talking to Aer Lingus management and leading brokerages in Dublin.

A Cabinet sub-committee, chaired by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has also met several times to discuss the airline's future.

The Minister for Transport, Mr Brennan, has spoken in support of selling at least part of the airline, although the Minister for Art, Sport and Tourism, Mr O'Donoghue, indicated his opposition to such a move some months ago.

According to Government sources, the highly cyclical nature of the airline business makes selling any part of Aer Lingus a difficult proposition.

"Getting the timing right is very hard, getting the company to the market at precisely the right time may prove to be a tall order," said one Government source.

The airline's future was brought into sharp focus earlier this summer when chief executive, Mr Willie Walsh, and his management team sought permission to develop an "investment proposal" for the company.

This permission was denied at the time, although the Government sub-committee was set up.

The Government is keen to ensure that the Aer Lingus brand is not diluted in any way by the sale of equity.

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey is an Assistant Business Editor at The Irish Times