The number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell in September for the first time in five months. The 7 per cent decline brings the number of people out of work to 161,400, the lowest point since May, and 12,200 down on the month, according to the latest live register analysis from the Central Statistics Office.

The figures show that the standardised unemployment declined from 4.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent between August and September.

On an annual basis, however, the numbers out of work are risingwith 14.9 per cent more people out of work now than at the same stage in 2001, down somewhat from the annual rise of 16.1 per cent in August.

When the data are adjusted for seasonal trends such as workers returning to education, September's annual rise is 14.7 per cent.

Economists were reluctant to extract a trend from the reduced live register numbers, which have been rising steadily for most of the last year and a half. A monthly drop of greater magnitude was seen in April, but was reversed over the next two months.

"It doesn't really accord with economic evidence," said Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist with IIB Bank. "It may well be that the seasonal pattern isn't fully adjusted.

"You would expect in a climate where there is no jobs growth that you would get unemployment ticking higher," he added.

The live register figures sit badly with numbers released on Thursday showing that redundancy numbers for the year to date are 37 per cent higher than at the same point in 2001, having risen every month this year. Almost 20,000 redundancies have been notified to the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment so far in 2002.

"If you count in figures for industrial production and income tax, there's nothing that would suggest that there's a turning point," Mr Hughes said.

Mr Dermot O'Brien, chief executive with NCB Stockbrokers, was similarly circumspect on the chances of a continued upward swing. "It could be the start of a better trend, but it'll take another few months to see if it's a turning point," he said, adding that manufacturing and services data compiled by NCB did not offer any evidence for such a movement.

Unadjusted figures show that numbers on the live register fell in all regions of the Republic between August and September, with the largest drop coming in the mid-west, where an 8.7 per cent decline was registered. The least significant fall was noted in Dublin, where the number of claimants fell by 5.3 per cent.

On an annual basis, the Dublin region saw the largest rise in the register, with an expansion of 23.8 per cent. The lowest annual growth was noted in the Border region, where the number of registered claimants rose by 5.2 per cent.