Greencore takeover possibility recedes

Shares in Greencore fell for the fourth day in a row yesterday as the likelihood of a takeover bid emerging receded in the absence of a stock exchange statement from the company.

Market observers point out that if the food group had been talking to a potential suitor while its share price was climbing over the past few months, it would have been obliged to issue a statement on the matter to the stock exchange.

The absence of such a statement implies that Greencore has not received any acquisition approaches.

Greencore's shares rose by close to 30 per cent over the past three and a half months, as investors became increasingly persuaded that the stock was ripe for corporate action.

The number of shares traded on a daily basis has also climbed dramatically, particularly within the past few weeks.

If the firm had opened its books to a would-be buyer while its share price was rising, this would almost certainly have been noted by the stock exchange which would have required Greencore to issue a statement.

It would be highly unusual for a bid to emerge without any such communication between buyer and acquisition target, since the value of takeover offers is almost always based on intensive scrutiny of a given company's internal financial information.

An offer made on any other basis would automatically be dubbed hostile. While such an approach cannot be ruled out, it appears unlikely, particularly since the Republic has little history of hostile acquisitions.

Greencore's shares started to attract a higher level of investor interest soon after a share purchase in October by Mr Dermot Desmond's IIU, which lifted the investment firm's stake in Greencore from 16 to 22 per cent.

A further block of almost 4 per cent of the company changed hands at the start of December, thus offering some support to the takeover rumour that had already begun to circulate.

This rumour has since developed into a prediction that the company could be bought out for €4.00 per share, with some dealers said to have been pushing Greencore shares on this basis with their private clients.

Shares in the company closed at €3.40 last night, down five cents on the day.

Mr Desmond has never commented on his stake or his intentions for Greencore, while the company has always shied away from discussing particular shareholders, save from clarifying their identity.

It is also believed that a number of individuals have invested heavily in "contracts for difference" in Greencore, or derivative instruments that allow investors to benefit from a particular stock's rising share price without actually owning the shares.

The company has remained silent on takeover speculation over the past few months, and no comment was forthcoming on the matter yesterday.