More than 35,000 people came off income supports in February

More than 35,000 people came off State job supports in February as the labour market continued its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic shock, the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office show.

A total of 465,634 people were on the Live Register or were benefiting from the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) or Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) in February.

That figure is about half of where it was a year earlier when there were 939,789 people on State supports.

It was also a new low point of the series, down from 501,194 in January. The high point of the series was reached in April 2020 (1,179,448).

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All PUP recipients have either transferred to a Jobseeker’s scheme or had their PUP claim closed, the CSO said.

The Live Register is not a proxy for unemployment as people with part-time work can be entitled to benefits. However, it does broadly track improvements in the labour market.

CSO statistician Morgan O’Donnell said when seasonal effects were considered, the adjusted Live Register total for March was 181,900 – which was an increase of 17,000 people from February, reflecting the end of the PUP scheme.

The unadjusted Live Register total for March 2022 was 178,996 people, comprising 99,163 men (55.4 per cent) and 79,833 women (44.6 per cent).

Of those on the Live Register for March, 17,413 – or 9.7 per cent – were under 25 years of age.

In February, 258,952 people were estimated to have been directly supported by the EWSS, down from 363,180 in January. Just under a quarter of these were aged under 25.

Separate CSO figures this week put the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March at 5.5 per cent or 146,400.

“Despite the challenging conditions, a tightening labour market is expected over the forecast horizon, and in that context broader-based wage growth consistent with economic fundamentals is welcome, especially as real incomes will likely fall this year,” the Central Bank said earlier this week in its latest assessment.

“However, where growth in wages or profits respond entirely to the currently high rates of inflation, or are detached from underlying productivity growth, the likelihood increases that harmful higher inflation becomes embedded,” it said.

In its report and on the basis of the uncertain economic outlook, the regulator revised up its projections for unemployment to 6 per cent, 5.4 per cent and 5 per cent in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively.