Janet Yellen is in no great rush to hike up rates

Easy does it. Nobody expected Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen to raise interest rates after US policy-makers met yesterday. This meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was always going to be more about what she said than what she did.

The latest indications from Ms Yellen point to two quarter-point rate increases this year instead of the four that were foreseen last December when US rates went up (by a tiny amount) for the first time in almost a decade. The shifting outlook reflects deepening concern about the global economic outlook, concern which prompted the European Central Bank to cut its main rate to zero a week ago and expand its contentious bond-buying campaign by a third.

The Fed’s sense of caution is in keeping with strict guidance issued in December. Back then, as policy-makers raised the target to range from 0.25 per cent to 0.50 per cent, they stressed that only “gradual” interest rate increases were in play. So it comes to pass. US rates are still close to rock bottom. While the rate cycle has turned, uncertainty prevails and the slow- lane pace of anticipated increases is decelerating to a trickle.

Ms Yellen says global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks, meaning inflation will stay low for the rest of 2016. At a press conference she said it remained to be seen whether the recent firming in US core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, would be sustained. As policy-makers projected weaker economic growth and lower inflation this year, they lowered their estimate of where the targeted lending rate would be in the long run to 3.30 per cent from 3.50 per cent.

Still, the Fed sees continued improvement in the US job market, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.7 per cent by the end of the year and fall further in 2017 and 2018.