India set to finally take off but question marks remain

For several years the question has been when, or if, India will finally take off and register a prolonged period of sustained economic growth. Free-market reform has long been seen as the essential basis for expansion, but many analysts feel that prime minister Narendra Modi has so far failed to bite the bullet on meaningful reforms.

So it was a mixed reception that greeted finance minister Arun Jaitley’s first full budget for 2015-16, which chooses to boost economic growth and ratchet up capital expenditure, while following a path of fiscal restraint, but which shies away from reforms of areas such as land acquisition laws.

Analysts welcome the pro-growth elements, such as trying to upgrade the country’s ageing train system and build more infrastructure, but feel that implementing them will be a serious challenge because of impediments such as a shortfall in tax revenues.

"The plans are impressive, but the key now is to ensure that they are implemented," said Capital Economics' India economist Shilan Shah. "There are a number of potential impediments. The first is that tax revenues in the next fiscal year could fall short of what the finance ministry has budgeted for."

Soon after the budget, the Reserve Bank of India took everyone by surprise when it cut its policy rates – the repo and reverse repo rates have both been reduced by 25 basis points, to 7.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively.

“With governor Rajan voicing doubts over the accuracy of recent GDP data, which suggest that economic growth is strong, further loosening very likely lies ahead,” Mr Shah added.