House price growth to slow to 8% next year

The growth of house prices in Ireland will slow down in 2018, a survey from the Central Bank of Ireland has suggested.

The third quarter residential property price survey, in conjunction with the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland, expects price inflation to slow to 8 per cent next year. That compares to the current rate of 12.8 per cent.

While prices are expected to slow, all of the respondents to the Central Bank’s survey anticipated that prices would continue to increase over the next three years with the rate of increase being put at 15 per cent.

This compares with a forecasted 20 per cent rise over three years by the ESRI.

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The figures for property prices in Dublin have dropped from 10 per cent for 2018 while they’ve stabilised at 15 per cent to match the national figure. Median property prices in Dublin in September stood at €340,000 meaning that, under the survey’s forecast, the median property price would be €391,000 by 2021.

Supply of housing

Unsurprisingly, the supply of housing remains the key factor influencing expectations of house price growth while economic conditions were also cited as having an impact on expectations.

A spokesman for the Central Bank noted the data in the survey was a useful complement to more official sources of property market information but is ultimately a snapshot of respondents’ expectations at a particular point in time.

The survey was conducted in October and received 77 responses from Irish property professionals.