Going against the tide over Brexit on this side of the sea

Former AIB chief David Duffy seems somewhat less perturbed about Britain’s looming EU referendum than Richard Pym, his erstwhile chairman at the State-owned bank.

Interviewed in these pages yesterday, Mr Duffy said he was “very relaxed” about the looming referendum and would be surprised if British voters chose to leave the union.

Now chief of CYBG, as the newly independent Clydesdale and Yorkshire Bank is known, Duffy said the main Brexit-related risk to the business is the threat to economic growth.

CYBG is not export oriented and would have no complicated structure to unravel in a Brexit, he added. “All we’re concerned about is, if Brexit happens, does it affect growth?”

Contrast that with Mr Pym, who has warned of a potential “tragedy” for the Irish economy if Brexit happens.

“There’s €1 billion of trade each week between Britain and Ireland and, during the period where the economies adjust to Britain being outside the EU, that trade is at risk.”

Mr Pym said one month ago. “There’ll be a prolonged period of uncertainty and – undoubtedly – reduced investment during that period.”

This chimes with mainstream opinion on this side of the Irish Sea, where Brexit is seen as a wholly negative prospect with potential to disrupt growth, trade and lots more besides. On the other side of the sea, of course, opinion is sharply divided. For every business leader projecting doom in a Brexit scenario, another pops up to say it will all work out just fine. Some corporate figures are inclined to say nothing at all on the matter.

Mr Duffy and Mr Pym were due to meet for dinner this week, so there would have been plenty of scope to thrash out the Brexit question and other matters.

No matter what happens in June, Mr Duffy must be glad to have concluded CYBG’s flotation in February.

Preparations for an initial public offering of AIB shares continue, but real action appears unlikely before the referendum. And that’s not all. The lack of a government presents another snag.