Cantillon: Ireland off IMF’s radar – for now

The International Monetary Fund never tired of doom-laden pronouncements on Ireland when the crisis here was at its worst. Now it has nothing much to say.

A swift examination of the IMF's new World Economic Outlook, Fiscal Monitor and Global Financial Stability reports uncovers hardly any mention of Ireland. Where reference is made it's in graphics or tables. These biannual publications present the summation of the IMF's anxieties, so it's fair to assume to heat has gone out of the Irish story from the fund's perspective. That good news follows the early repayment of most of the State's €22.5 billion bailout loan from the IMF.

So the good times roll? Well, not quite. In its last musings on Ireland, only a few weeks back, the IMF warned that the slowdown in major global economies must be of concern to Dublin. The local economy was rebounding, but vulnerabilities reflect the openness of the financial system and the economy in general.

Fast-forward one month and it’s that very global slowdown which dominates the IMF’s latest work. “Over the last six months, global financial stability risks increased because of higher economic risks and uncertainty, falling commodity prices, and concerns about China’s economy,” says the stability report.

Turmoil

A key question, says José Viñals of IMF, pictured, is whether turmoil at the start of the year has been safely overcome. The alternative reading is that it marks a “warning” that more needs to be done. “I believe it is the latter: more needs to be done to secure global stability,” says Viñals .

Concern that the world could tip into economic stagnation comes on top of anxiety that a British repudiation of the EU in June "could do severe damage by disrupting established trading relationships". Such ties include deep Irish trade links, of course, and local Brexit concerns do stop there.

Ireland is not in the spotlight right now. Courtesy of British voters , however, the spotlight could turn.