The European Union cannot really afford to turn up its nose at new trade deals lightly these days.
The world looks very different now than it did six years ago, when a landmark agreement with the Mercosur countries of South America was first put on the table.
US president Donald Trump’s tariffs and the wider fraying of the transatlantic relationship has left Europe looking for new friends.
The Government has made a fair bit of noise about plans to reduce the State’s huge dependence on US trade by finding new markets for Irish industries and producers.
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The Mercosur deal would be the biggest free trade agreement the EU has struck, lowering export barriers between the 27-state union and Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
It would open up a big new market for German cars, Irish whiskey, French and Italian wine and cheese, Spanish olive oil – the list goes on.
[ The Irish Times view on Mercosur Opens in new window ]
Irish farmers oppose the deal. They are afraid that competition from cheaper South American steaks and burgers might undercut demand for Irish beef elsewhere in Europe.
The Government has to decide which side of the fence it wants to take.
Ireland has sat among the opponents and sceptics of the deal, alongside France, Poland, Austria, Italy and others.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm that negotiated the Mercosur deal, has argued it will not be as bad for beef farmers as the vocal agriculture lobby claims.
The maximum amount of South American beef sold into the EU in any given year should the deal go through – 99,000 tonnes – would be about 1.5 per cent of all beef produced in the union.
The commission has pointed to an emergency brake it could pull to curtail Mercosur beef imports, in the event, say, Irish or French farmers come under severe pressure, or beef prices tank.
That new safeguard has been welcomed by the French and Italian governments, who say they are weighing up their positions.
A majority of 15 out of the EU’s 27 states, representing about two-thirds of the union’s population, is needed to approve the deal, as do MEPs in the European Parliament.
The feeling in Brussels is that a blocking minority of national capitals big enough to spike the deal is looking less likely.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and her officials have been lobbying France and other holdouts over recent months to bring them around.
Behind the scenes, the Trump effect has played a part in shifting attitudes. The US president has made it clear that European leaders should not expect Washington to be the steadfast ally it was for decades. The Government here is far from the only one looking for new markets to trade in.
There are concerns that South America will gravitate further towards the orbit of a rival, China, should European Union efforts to get the deal over the line falter again.
EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič made a plea for capitals to back the deal, drawing on an anecdote to rival the time former taoiseach Enda Kenny said he met a man with two pints in his hand.
“When you have a coffee in Montevideo, or you talk to the students, or you are just walking the streets, everyone is asking: ‘Europeans, where are you, why are you not more present here … why don’t we do more trade?’ I think we’ve been missing this agreement,” Šefčovič told a press conference.
The Government would take some flak from farmers for U-turning and voting to approve the Mercosur agreement. The State might find itself more isolated than it thinks inside the EU, though, if it sides with those seeking to reject the deal.
