Easy money just got a little more expensive across China

Ma Sitian was on business in Italy when he got the news, rumoured for months to be coming, that China had raised interest rates…

Ma Sitian was on business in Italy when he got the news, rumoured for months to be coming, that China had raised interest rates for the first time in nine years.

"What? Tell me me more," said the number two at Ningbo Bird, China's top homegrown cellphone maker, pressing his ear to his own mobile.

Chinese companies, weaned on a steady diet of easy loans at fixed costs, face a less certain future after the central bank raised interest rates by 27 basis points yesterday.

"I imagine companies without the benefit of a strong cash position will eventually feel the pinch," Mr Ma said, taking solace that the small rate increase appears to be more symbol than substance for now.

READ MORE

"We don't borrow a lot of money from banks. Most of our operations are funded by cashflow," he added hastily.

Other executives, surprised over their dinner, reacted with concern that their days of cheap borrowing may be ending after a move that analysts say could be the first of many.

Most agreed it was a tiny move. But economists say that what counts is yet to come.

Stock markets in China and Hong Kong have been pricing in the risk of a sudden interest rate hike since the second quarter. That was when talk of such a move first surfaced after Beijing showed resolve in trying to cool over-investment in sectors such as autos and steel, cracking down on credit.

The benchmark Shanghai composite index has shed more than a quarter of its value since early April. "The more significant impact will come over the next few years. It seems the government is willing to use more market-driven tools in future to fine-tune the economy," according to Mr Fan Wei, president of Forte Land, Shanghai's top property developer.

HSBC economist Mr Qu Hongbin foresees another hike within three months.

"This is not going to be the last one," he added.

Economists have long argued for market-driven monetary policy tools. But that hadn't prepared some business executives for the actual rate hike.

"It's a bit of a surprise," said Mr Han Xiaotong, the deputy general manager of Hangzhou Iron and Steel.

"I suspect the central bank is taking such a small step because it's trying to minimise the pain on heavily geared firms, to allow them some breathing room."

Mr Hui Li, an economist at CLSA, reckoned the move was actually positive for Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms as three-quarters of them were in a net cash position - companies such as China Unicom.

"Our positive free cashflow provides us with the flexibility of pre-paying part of our loans to lower our financing cost," said Mr Tong Jilu, chief financial officer for Unicom, the smaller of the country's two cellular giants.

What about private enterprise, the sector of the economy that contributes an estimated 50-70 per cent of GDP but has the biggest difficulty in raising cash?

The non-state sector relies on other channels for capital, rather than banks, insiders say.

"I'm not worried," said Mr Xu Yongshui, the head of self-run Weili Lighter, based in Wenzhou, the entrepreneurial hub of private enterprise haven Zhejiang.