Consumer confidence still rising

Last month, consumer confidence climbed to its highest level in more than a year, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi Pulse monitor.

Results from the telephone survey show that 44 per cent of respondents expect their economic situation to improve over the coming 12 months. This compares to 38 per cent in June and marks a sharp rise in a positive trend that began last summer.

Just 12 per cent of respondents to the survey said they expected their economic situation to weaken in the year ahead, while 41 per cent were anticipating no change.

Optimism was particularly marked among "chief income earners", where the proportion of respondents expecting an improvement climbed from 41 per cent in June to 50 per cent in July.

Just 10 per cent of people in this category were preparing for their economic position to weaken in July.

The survey was conducted between the end of June and the third week in July with a random sample of 2,000 adults.

The survey period coincided with upheaval in global oil markets, with prices reaching record highs towards the end of July.

Respondents were asked: "Thinking about the year ahead, do you think employment levels and the Irish economy in general are set to improve, weaken or remain the same?"

Consumer confidence has been growing more or less consistently since last summer. The latest results compare particularly favourably to a period almost exactly a year ago when 70 per cent of respondents said they anticipated a weakening in their economic position.

The July data also reinforces other releases pointing to an uptick in consumers' situations.

The most recent IIB Bank/ESRI survey on consumer sentiment, for example, showed consumers feeling more confident in July than at any point in the past three years.

This jump was attributed to growing optimism about employment, even though jobless numbers as measured by the Live Register rose slightly over the same period.

A breakdown of the July results from the Irish Times/TNS mrbi survey shows that men were significantly more confident than women.

Some 51 per cent of males said they were feeling positive about the coming year, while just 36 per cent of women gave the same response.

Likewise, of the 12 per cent of respondents who were were expecting a downturn in their personal economic circumstances last month, almost two-thirds were women.

This accords with results from earlier surveys, with men historically taking a more optimistic stance on their employment and economic situations than women.

The most pessimistic among both sexes were aged 15-44.

A further analysis of the study shows that the most striking climb in confidence last month came from retired people.

Two thirds of respondents in this category were anticipating an improvement in their situation, up from just less than half in the previous month.

Working people also posted a notable boost to their economic confidence, with the proportion expressing confidence about the next 12 months rising from 37 to 43 per cent in July.

Almost half of housewives said they envisaged no change in their status over the coming year, with 28 per cent foreseeing some improvement.

The number of unemployed people expecting to better their situation in the next year climbed slightly, rising from 42 per cent in June to 43 per cent in July.