JLL says total investment spend in 2019 could eclipse €4.6bn record

The sale of Green Reit’s €1.5 billion prime office and logistics portfolio could see a new record being set by year-end for the total volume of investment in Ireland’s commercial property market.

That is the view from JLL's head of research Hannah Dwyer following the publication of the latest research tracking investment deals with a value greater than €1 million.

With over €2 billion in transactions recorded in the first six months of 2019, according to JLL’s analysis, the completion of the Green Reit sale would by itself bring the running total for 2019 to over €3.5 billion – or some €500 million above the €3 billion volume JLL views as being sustainable for a market of Dublin’s size.

That €3.5 billion figure is set to be easily surpassed however, with Ms Dwyer predicting year-end volumes to come in at over €4 billion, and quite possibly above the record €4.6 billion transacted in 2014.

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She says: “Volumes over €2 billion [in the first half of this year] are encouraging and mark a particularly strong start to the year. This activity was driven by larger-sized deals, with approximately seven greater than €100 million trading in the year-to-date.

“Looking ahead we can expect total investment volumes for the year-end to be over €4 billion, and potentially to surpass the current peak of €4.6 billion. This will be boosted by the Green Reit sale, which will be the largest deal of the year and indeed the largest direct asset sale ever in the Irish market.”

JLL's CEO and head of investment John Moran added: "It is positive to see a strong start to the year for investments. There is still strong depth of bidding on deals. The only sector that is struggling is mispriced retail, where investor depth is thin.

“There are still new entrants to the market and a resumption of interest from parties that have previously been active in the market. Pricing is varied across assets, and there are still opportunities to add value across the board.”