Business Week: still no government amid mixed prognosis for economy

After more than two months without a government, a third attempt to elect a taoiseach ended in failure this week as the vultures of political instability continued to circle overhead.

Writing in The Irish Times on Tuesday, Minister for Public Expenditure Brendan Howlin pointed to the Government's likely "failure" to submit the State's budgetary homework to Brussels on time due to the backlog in official business.

The Government is required to file a “stability programme update” to the European Commission no later than April 30th. This sets out economic forecasts and outlines the fiscal position for the budget. Howlin said financial markets would “undoubtedly notice” a delay.

He also raised the possibility of a "seismic political shock" in the coming weeks should the British public vote to exit the European Union.

At best, he said, the economic impact on Ireland would be “uncertain” but pointed out how “damaging” uncertainty could be to business confidence. “Sure, the economy is continuing to improve, but it is at the point that you start taking that for granted that the danger arises,” he said.

However, there were plenty of indicators this week that the sky isn’t about to fall. Despite concerns the instability would hinder the NTMA’s attempt to sell €750 million of 10-year bonds, the auction on Thursday went off without a hitch.

The sale was made at a record low yield, or interest rate, of 0.817 per cent as the bonds received bids from investors for 2.4 times the amount of notes on offer. That’s below the median bid-to-cover ratio of 2.7 times for the previous seven auctions.

Goodbody Stockbrokers said the sale underlined “the confidence” international investors had in the Irish recovery, although it did add that if the present situation was allowed to persist it “may begin to erode” that confidence.

There was encouragement also from the International Monetary Fund, which said in its latest World Economic Outlook that it expected the Irish economy to grow by 5 per cent this year – more than three times the euro zone average.

Davy Stockbrokers upgraded its growth forecasts for the Irish economy to 6 per cent, but noted that if the Republic had to deal with the fallout from a Brexit in the absence of a government it could pose a serious threat to recovery.

If we do end up with another election, perhaps those who engage in the tax cuts versus more spending debate should heed a new OECD study which this week suggested that an average couple with two children in Ireland gets more in State transfers such as child benefit than they pay in taxes and PRSI on their incomes.

While families take home about 85.4 per cent of their gross pay on average in OECD countries (when benefits are added in) the study finds that in Ireland the average family has take home pay representing 100.3 per cent of their income.

Property prices

The housing crisis will probably be number one on the agenda of the government when we get one. The Daft quarterly house price report showed the number of homes for sale is at its lowest level in nine years. It also reported that prices are continuing to stall in Dublin but are rising at close to 10 per cent a year elsewhere.

Estate agent Sherry Fitzgerald said the market was “in crisis” with supply drying up and investors fleeing. In its House Price Index for the first quarter of 2016, it said the average value of residential property in the Republic rose by 1.3 per cent, bringing growth in the 12 months to the of end March to 3.5 per cent. The average value of residential property in Dublin rose by 0.7 per cent in the first quarter, up by 1.2 per cent in the 12 months to the end of March.

Marian Finnegan, chief economist with the estate agent, said the figures “mask the true dysfunctional nature of the market,” and warned the crisis “will only get worse”.

Tesco sales up

In a sign that the recovery may be beginning to trickle down in some quarters, Tesco Ireland reported its first rise in sales in nearly four years.

The chain cited strong Christmas sales as a factor in a 1 per cent increase in like-for-like sales for the three months to the end of February.

Despite the quarterly rise, full-year sales were down by 1.9 per cent with the company generating revenues of €2.5 billion. Tesco operates 149 stores in the Republic but has been struggling to cope with aggressive price discounting by rivals.

One of those rivals is Lidl. The chain doesn't file accounts but managing director John Paul Scally said sales in the Republic were "significantly more" than €1 billion – a barrier it breached "a while back". He wouldn't, however, reveal the company's profitability. Tesco and other rivals may baulk when they hear he is planning to open another "40 or 50" stores in the Republic in the coming years.

Beef sector under threat

There were some disappointing figures for Irish exports, with Irish beef to the US amounting to just €6 million in the first quarter. The figure was well short of official predictions.

Department of Agriculture figures show just 700 tonnes of beef were exported to the US, more than a year after the lifting of its ban. Minister for Agriculture Coveney had previously said the US – the world’s largest consumer of beef – could take up to 20,000 tonnes of Irish produce, worth €100 million, annually. Ouch.

That news landed in Coveney’s in-tray just as strong progress was being made on a potentially historic trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur – the regional bloc that includes beef-exporting giants Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.

After more than a decade of on and off negotiations, a deal looks imminent and it could have disastrous consequences for the Republic as about 90 per cent of our beef exports go to Europe.

Taxing changes

In what could be another blow to the State’s finances, last week’s revelations in the Panama Papers preceded an EU plan to increase tax transparency. Global companies which make arrangements under Irish law to shield sensitive financial data from public scrutiny will be compelled to divulge their affairs.

Large tech firms such as Google, Apple, Dell and Microsoft rank among hundreds of international groups with big Irish operations. Many funnel huge revenues and profits throughout Europe into their Irish units, with minimal public disclosure. Under the new plan to curtail tax avoidance – which hasn't been approved by the European Parliament yet – they will be obliged to publish their revenue, profit and tax payments on a country-by-country basis in each member state.

Things take off at airport

It’s been a hectic week at Dublin Airport. After announcing plans to go ahead with a new 3,110m runway, the airport said a new 87m high air traffic control tower would be needed, bringing the cost to a possible €370 million.

Separately, figures released on Monday showed profits at the IAA rose 13 per cent to almost €34 million last year.

It's a time of significant development at the airport, with Aer Lingus chief executive Willie Walsh suggesting the airline could fly from the Republic to China if trade between the two countries drove demand for the service.