Business Week: Britain leaves; summer economic statement; Beijing air route

Bitterly divisive referendum campaign sees Leave win the day


After months of will they or won't theys, the British people finally had their say this week and took the plunge, voting to leave the European Union (EU).

The relative calm that had descended on the final furlong of a bitterly divisive referendum campaign that see-sawed back and forth vanished on Thursday night.

Early in the week, Iseq shares soared at the fastest daily pace in more than six years amid a growing expectation across global financial markets that the UK would vote to remain.

However, on Friday the Iseq felt the brunt of the decision when some €7 billion was wiped off the Irish market as the Iseq index ended the session down 7.7 per cent at 5,878, having plunged as much as 17 per cent earlier inthe day.

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The ramifications of the result will be felt all over Europe, but not least in the Republic and the North, both of which will be at the frontline when the inevitable aftershocks strike the business, security, and jobs sectors among others.

The Remain camp had warned of three million job losses in the event of a British exit, saying businesses would move from the UK to neighbouring EU countries for the free trade benefits.

“Not only will the UK economy suffer, Ireland will also be very badly affected,” Ibec chief executive Danny McCoy had said. “The UK’s EU membership is of key strategic importance to Ireland and Irish business.”

The uncertainty surrounding the referendum had permeated almost every sector of Irish business and economics. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) scaled back its full-year Irish economic forecast amid a slowdown in activity in recent months as nerves jittered ahead of the referendum.

The think tank’s latest quarterly economic commentary said gross domestic product will expand by 4.6 per cent this year, having previously forecast 4.8 per cent. It said the economy will expand by 4.1 per cent next year.

The Republic is set to retain its title as the fastest-growing euro zone economy for the third year in a row as consumer demand and domestic investment take over from trade as key drivers of growth.

The ESRI’s take on the jobs outlook is also pretty rosy, with its estimate for the number in employment breaching two million next year for the first time since 2008. It expects employment to fall below 7.5 per cent in the final quarter this year and to less than 7 per cent towards the end of 2017.

Despite all that, Dublin was listed as one of only three euro zone cities in the top 50 most expensive cities in the world for expatriates to live in and work in. The city moves up the rankings for a third year running from 49th to 47th position, according to the latest annual Cost of Living Survey by consultancy firm Mercer.

It joins Paris (44) and Milan (50) as the only euro zone cities in the top 50. Other high-ranking European cities include Zurich (3), Geneva (8), Bern (13) and London (17).

Summer statement

Following the delay in forming a government, the annual spring economic statement, which sets out the fiscal lay of the land, became the summer economic statement – but in any event we finally got to see it this week.

Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Finance Michael Noonan said the revised "fiscal space" in the October budget will be about €1 billion.

The general government deficit – the difference between the Government’s incomings and outgoings – is expected to fall to 0.9 per cent of GDP this year, and will be eliminated entirely by 2018.

In news that is sure to jar with new Minister for Health Simon Harris, there is to be no further cash available for overspending in the Department of Health this year or next. Supplementary estimates are no longer possible due to European Union rules, Mr Noonan said.

The two Ministers also warned about the pressures on public sector pay. The document points out pay increases added €6.5 billion to the annual public sector pay bill between 2000 and 2008, though a recruitment embargo and public sector pay cuts reduced that figure by €3.6 billion during the economic crash.

The Department of Finance predicts strong growth in the Irish economy will continue over the coming years, ranging between 5 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent in 2021. Debt will continue to fall, to 72 per cent of GDP by 2021. And as long as growth continues, "we're going to have a lot of money," said Noonan.

Which is just as well, as, according to Ibec director Aviné McNally, the State needs to spend an extra €10 billion on roads, ports and energy by 2020 to tap manufacturing’s full potential.

Ms McNally argued that with Government support and planning the Republic could thrive as a world leader in quality manufacturing, but she warned that it must get the business environment right.

Despite the seemingly relentless flow of good news and economic forecasting, the Government cannot rest easy, according to Dublin stockbroker Investec. The group this week predicted the Government will collapse in October after failing to get its first Budget across the line.

Analyst Philip O’Sullivan said Fianna Fáil’s stated opposition to the Government’s plan to scrap the Universal Social Charge was likely to prompt a showdown come Budget time.

Beijing route

In aviation news, Chinese airline Hainan is close to deciding on whether to open a route from Dublin to Beijing in what would be Ireland’s first direct link to Asia’s biggest economy.

Hainan, part of the HNA Group which recently bought Irish aircraft lessor, Avolon, has been actively considering the possibility of flying from the capital to Beijing for several months.

The group's chief operating officer, William Zhang, said it was "very likely" the airline, China's fourth biggest, would begin flying from Beijing to Dublin once there was a market for the service and the timing was right.

In slightly less glamorous news, Dutch airline KLM said on Tuesday it will launch a new, twice-daily flight between Amsterdam and Dublin. The route will help passengers travelling further afield, as Amsterdam is a key European hub, with KLM offering onward connections to other European countries, North America, Asia and the Middle East.

Tax avoidance

Controversy over international tax avoidance continues to rumble on. EU member states this week backed new measures that may make it more difficult for multinational companies to exploit loopholes in national tax systems.

Following months of behind-the-scenes discussions in Brussels the EU's 28 member states endorsed a proposal that was published by the European Commission in January, though a number of the initial proposals were watered-down following opposition by countries.

The Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive will be binding on member states, representing a significant escalation of the EU’s power over tax regimes in member states.

Among the measures included in the directive are new rules on controlled foreign companies which aim to tackle the practice whereby multinationals shift profits from a high-tax country to a low tax jurisdiction in order to avoid tax.

A new exit tax will be levied on companies moving assets such as intellectual property or patents from one tax jurisdiction to another, while the EU is tightening up the way companies exploit inter-company loans to benefit from the fact that interest payments are generally tax-deductible.