BUDGET COUNTDOWN 2 days to go: This week we'll find out just how strong the conversion powers of Fr Seán Healy were during that sunny weekend in Inchydoney last September. Carl O'Brien, Social Affairs Correspondent, reports.
One of the first priorities for the Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Mr Brennan, is to reverse or modify many of the so-called "savage 16" welfare cuts introduced last year by his predecessor, Ms Mary Coughlan.
The cutbacks affected a range of benefits including crèche payments, widow's welfare entitlements, rent supplements and back-to-education grants. The fallout came at a high political cost for the Government, saving just €58 million in a Department which spent more than €10 billion last year.
The widow's welfare entitlement was a case study in political folly: the saving cost €5.8 million, followed by howls of opposition from campaigners, opposition parties and Fianna Fáil backbenchers, resulting in the ignominy of a Government u-turn.
Given the Government's recently discovered caring, sharing side, Mr Brennan is likely to defuse the most incendiary of the remaining cuts, such as the rent supplement changes and crèche payments, and may tinker with the obscure cuts.
The bigger question facing Mr Brennan, who presides over the biggest-spending Department, is how to sequence funding for welfare increases the Government pledged to meet under the Sustaining Progress pay deal and the national anti-poverty strategy.
These promised increases - including basic social welfare rates and child benefit - will cost €2.5 billion over the next three years. With one eye on the general election in three years, he is likely to announce modest increases in all the welfare rates and allowances this year, potentially allowing for some fireworks come election time.
On Budget day, the Minister is likely to secure a social welfare package worth between €700 million and €800 million extra, which would pave the way for modest increases in child benefit and social welfare rates - and for a number of other increases.
The minimum social welfare rate for a single person, for example, is €134.80 a week, and is due to rise to €185.80 by 2007 under the terms of Sustaining Progress. A modest increase of €10 or more this year would allow for more hefty increases in budgets closer to the election.
Child benefit - worth €131.60 a month for each of the first two children - is likely to rise by at least €10. This would break the Government's pledge to increase child benefit to €150 by 2005.
While these measures have been flagged for some time, the Minister is expected to use any spare change to target children at risk of poverty, the disabled and the State's unpaid carers.
There is speculation that he will try to address child poverty through an increase in the Child Dependent Allowance - a payment for the State's poorest children - or a rise in the Family Income Supplement. Both are seen by campaigners as an effective way of tackling child poverty. They will be waiting, however, to see what kind of increases the Minister plans.
The Minister is also expected to benefit carers, possibly through an increase in the respite grants (currently worth €835 a year) or by allowing OAPs in receipt of the carers' allowance to hold onto more of their pension.
The Government has also been talking up a disability package which Mr Brennan will contribute to in the form of an increase in the Disability Allowance and funds for the establishment of a State-funded advocacy group for the disabled.
While Mr Brennan recently described himself as a "socialist at heart", followed by Mr Ahern's claim to be "one of the last socialists left in Irish politics", don't expect radical social inclusion measures or moves to build a fair, inclusive society.
The welfare increases will keep the Government within breathing distance of the pledges it made to meet targets under the national pay deal. And, if all goes according to plan, voters' memories of "savage" welfare cuts will fade. In short, expect a solid if unspectacular Budget from a social welfare standpoint.
Fr Healy will be disappointed at the modest increases, but he knows that conversions don't happen overnight - especially when you're three budgets away from the next general election.
THE 'SAVAGE 16': Widow's/widower's pension
New claimants no longer to be eligible either for half-rate payment of disability or unemployment benefits where the recipient was already in receipt. Reversed this year.
Lone parents payment: Lone parents who took up a job lost the payment if they earned more than €293 a week.
Crèche supplement: Discontinued.
Diet supplement: To be phased out.
MABS supplement: A special supplement assisting people supported by the Money, Advice and Budgeting Services (MABS) in brokering deals with creditors was scrapped.
Rent/mortgage supplement: Changes meant if one member of a couple was in full-time employment, both would be excluded from claiming the supplement.
Child dependent allowance: Entitlement discontinued where the claimant's spouse/partner had a gross weekly income in excess of €300.
Disability/unemployment benefit: The threshold increased from €88.88 to €150 weekly.
Unemployment and health and safety benefit: The number of paid contributions required increased from 29 to 52.
Restrictions on unemployment benefit: The maximum duration reduced from 390 days to 312 days if a person had fewer than 260 PRSI contributions.
Back to Education Allowance: The qualifying period increased from six months to 15 months.
Rent Supplement: Health boards could refuse rent allowance in cases where the applicant had not already been renting for a period of six months and where people turned down offers of local authority accommodation or left local authority accommodation without reasonable cause.
Unemployment/Disability payment: An increase in the period where claims are linked with a previous claim from 13 to 26 weeks.
