The world will probably avoid recession despite economic gloom in the US and Japan, analysts at the World Economic Forum (WEF) business summit said yesterday.

They predicted more gains for the euro currency but said Europe remained too weak to take over as the main driver for the world economy. Mr Alan Blinder, a Princeton economist and former Fed vice-chairman, said the US economy may contract slightly this quarter but was likely to be bottoming out now.

"But that doesn't mean the second quarter will be a gangbuster," he said. Mr Blinder said the Fed was likely to be focusing its attention solely on US prospects. US officials were conspicuous by their absence from this year's meeting. This is in marked contrast to the way the Democrats treated Davos and the organisers will be hoping that President Bush's officials are more enthusiastic after they have settled into their jobs.

Last year former US president Bill Clinton made what many said was one of the best speeches of his career. The year before it was the vice-president, Al Gore, who many found disappointing. But it is not just politicians who make up Davos, there are thousands of chief executives from the world's biggest corporations. Microsoft co-founder Mr Bill Gates is chairing a session on Monday, an event which is being eagerly anticipated and one which is guaranteed to draw a huge audience.

Many participants have not yet arrived. Yesterday was far warmer than anticipated and all flights into Zurich were held up by fog. Those who were here early found they had to end their ski sessions and take the gondola down the mountain. Most will arrive today when the talking begins in earnest. Irish EU Commissioner Mr David Byrne will give a talk on issues surrounding the BSE crisis and beef safety, a speech which will be very closely watched. But in the town there are restaurants with signs promoting "American beef only here" so it may be that his lunch menu will receive as much coverage as what he has to say.