After months of back and forth and lots of shadow boxing, the European Union and the United States are said to be closing in on a trade deal that would impose a 15 per cent tariff on European imports.
This would be similar to the agreement Donald Trump struck with Japan earlier this week and half the level threatened in recent weeks by the White House.
On the face of it, such a deal might be considered a victory for the EU, limiting the damage for Irish and other European imports.
There is talk of exclusions for medical devices and spirits, which would be of benefit to Ireland.
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Yet a 15 per cent deal would be five percentage points higher than what the UK has agreed with Trump, putting Irish exporters at a disadvantage to their counterparts in Britain and north of the Border.
It also means that some companies will have to consider raising their prices for a second time this year – a universal 10 per cent tariff has been in place since April 5th – or taking the tax hit themselves. Neither is an appealing scenario.
[ US and EU close in on 15% tariff dealOpens in new window ]
And it goes without saying that US consumers might baulk at the price of Kerrygold butter being increased again. There has to be a ceiling to what they are prepared to pay for a block of butter.
Plus, what of the pharma sector (a key source of exports and corporation tax for Ireland), which has been separately threatened with tariffs of up to 200 per cent?
Lots of details remain to be ironed out and a deal has yet to be signed, sealed and delivered. Trump might yet do another U-turn on negotiations. Anything is possible in the current uncertain climate.
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But a deal would avoid a damaging trade war and hopefully draw a line under this saga.
Irish and European businesses will also welcome some certainty on the tariffs issue, albeit at a cost to them, and an end to the swirl or rumour and uncertainty that has existed since Trump returned to power.
