Irish consumer prices are estimated to have increased by 1.8 per cent in March from March 2024, suggesting a slight increase in the annual rate of headline inflation from 1.4 per cent in February, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said on Monday, amid rising food and transport prices.
The March flash estimate for the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) indicates food prices have increased by 3.2 per cent in the 12 months to March and were up by 0.8 per cent from February.
Transport prices, meanwhile, are estimated to have risen by 2 per cent in the month and 1.7 per cent in the 12 months to the end of March.
On a monthly basis, prices rose by an estimated 0.7 per cent in March despite a decline in energy prices, which fell by 1 per cent in the month and were down 0.4 per cent from March 2024, the CSO.
The estimates are subject to revision and will be finalised when the CSO publishes its March consumer price index in April.
The Irish HICP figures will also feed into February’s inflation estimate for the euro zone as a whole, which will be published on Tuesday.
Economic forecasters expect the headline rate of inflation in the euro area to have decreased slightly in March from February, when prices were 2.3 per cent higher than the same month last year.
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However, European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde hinted earlier this month that Frankfurt may pause the current cycle of interest rate cuts at its next monetary policy meeting in mid-April amid the looming threat of a trade war with the US over the impending imposition of tariffs.
The ECB has cut rates six times since last June, most recently in March, when it further lowered borrowing costs by a quarter point (0.25 of a percentage point).
On Monday morning, Ms Lagarde said the euro area is “almost where it should be” in the inflation cycle, but combating price increases in the current environment remains a “daily struggle”.
The ECB president also said US president Donald Trump’s latest tariffs, which he plans to announce on Wednesday, will hurt the global economy.
“Unfortunately, we are subject to a host of uncertainties, and when Mr Trump decides suddenly to raise tariffs by 25 per cent on the automobile sector or decides on reciprocity, which will apply from April 2nd, necessarily that leads to changes,” she said.
Europe is “two days away from a deep change in geopolitics and geoeconomics, decided by the American president”, Ms Lagarde told France Inter Radio.
However, she said the tariffs present an opportunity for Europe to take a “step toward independence” from the US.
