The EU’s top trade negotiator expects Donald Trump to hit the bloc with tariffs of about 20 per cent next week as the US president takes aggressive steps to cut trade deficits.
Maroš Šefčovič, the EU trade commissioner, told officials that Washington’s final plan was still unclear but that tariffs would apply equally to all 27 member states after meeting senior administration figures on Tuesday.
Two people said the commissioner suggested, based on his own assessment following his talks in Washington, that the tariffs would be “in the realm of 20 per cent”. The US gave no indication there would be any exemptions or exceptions.
Mr Šefčovič warned American officials that a tariff of 20 per cent on imports from the EU would be “devastating” for the bloc, according to the first official briefed on the talks. The US tariff level would be higher than at any stage since the EU’s founding members launched a common trade policy in the late 1950s.
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) warned last week that US tariffs could cost Ireland more than €18 billion in lost trade while posing a long-term risk to public finances.
That was based on the prospect of 25 per cent tariffs on all EU exports with the ESRI forecasting that gross domestic product would be 3.7 per cent lower over the next five to seven years compared with a scenario with no tariffs.
Ireland is among countries most vulnerable to changes in the global economy proposed by President Trump, with a significant proportion of employment, tax receipts and exports all directly dependent on trade with the US.
Mr Šefčovič this week met US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, trade representative Jamieson Greer and Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, in a last-ditch attempt to prevent an all-out transatlantic trade war.
Mr Trump’s trade policy roll-out has been chaotic and marked by a series of reversals and U-turns, making it hard for trading partners to predict.
But EU officials said the US side was unwavering in its determination to apply tariffs and relentless in raising complaints about EU trade policies in the meetings with Mr Šefčovič. Mr Trump has claimed the bloc was set up to “screw the US” and did not buy enough American goods.
He has dubbed April 2nd “Liberation Day” saying he would put “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners that had taken advantage of low US trade barriers to flood its market.
A White House official said “no final decisions have been made” on what the reciprocal tariff rates will be for US trading partners.
Mr Šefčovič said after the meeting that the “hard work goes on”. He posted on X: “The EU’s priority is a fair, balanced deal instead of unjustified tariffs. We share the goal of industrial strength on both sides.”
EU officials concede that the US is in no mood to change policy. The justification for the tariffs and the level was still unclear, they said.
Mr Šefčovič had hoped to convince his counterparts that they had a mutual interest in re-industrialising and defending their markets from cheap Chinese imports.
Brussels has begun to prepare a second tranche of retaliatory tariffs should Mr Trump confirm additional duties next week. The EU has already drawn up a €26 billion package after the US hit all steel and aluminium that will apply from April 12th.
Some of the tariffs have been postponed from April 1st after member states feared an even tougher response from Washington. France convinced Brussels to delay levies of 50 per cent on bourbon whiskey after Mr Trump said he would hit champagne and wine with 200 per cent tariffs in return.
US officials had not decided which tariffs would apply on April 2nd and which legal tools to use to levy them, people familiar with the conversations said. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025
