Unemployment rate ticks up marginally, remains near historic lows

The unemployment rate ticked up marginally in September, yet remained close to a record low despite warnings of a slowing economy.

The overall rate rose to 4.2 per cent from 4.1 per cent, the Central Statistics Office said in a statement. Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points.

“The seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed was 115,700 in September 2023, compared with 113,000 in August 2023,” CSO statistician Conor Delves said. “There was a decrease of 300 in the seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed in September 2023 when compared with a year earlier,” he added.

The data shows the jobs market remains strong even as fears increase of an economic slowdown. Think tank the Economic and Social Research Institute warned on Wednesday the post-Covid bounce in the economy is over, with gross domestic product (GDP) set to fall by 1.6 per cent this year. That would push the country into a technical recession. Department of Finance data on Tuesday, meanwhile, showed a drop in corporation tax receipts for the second straight month, adding to concerns ahead of next week’s budget.

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An unemployment rate of 4 per cent is generally seen as a measure of a country with full employment.

Youth unemployment ticked up to 11.9 per cent from 11.4 per cent in August, while the male unemployment increased marginally. The rate of women without work also ticked up from August but is about 0.6 percentage points lower than a year ago.

“The figures show the labour market remains tight, but there are early signs of a possible softening and an easing of the pressures on recruitment,” Jack Kennedy, senior economist at jobs website Indeed, said in a statement. “This will be a welcome development for employers, but less so for employees looking to compensate for the rise in living costs by obtaining higher pay or finding higher paid roles.”

Mr Kennedy also pointed to a fall-off in new Irish job postings on Indeed.com as a sign of a market starting to soften. As of September 29th, the number of Irish job postings was down 16 per cent year on year. Job postings remain 27 per cent above their pre-pandemic level, but this is down from a peak of 65 per cent above pre-pandemic levels in February 2022.