Over many years there has been substantial and unremitting change in the structure of Irish agriculture, with fewer and larger farms, less employment, specialisation and concentration of production, and growth in part-time farming. From a level of about 230,000 holdings 50 years ago, the number had fallen to 135,000 in the 2020 Census.
Since we joined the European Union, the agricultural area utilised has declined by more than 20 per cent largely in the earlier period. The area under grassland has been increasing over the years as the area under arable farming has declined to 8 per cent. Cattle and sheep numbers have increased by 24 per cent and 46 per cent respectively, and by relating the trend in livestock numbers expressed in livestock units (LU) to the aggregate grassland area, we can see how land use intensity has changed over time.
This shows that intensity has increased by more than 60 per cent since EU entry. By far the greatest increase in intensity has occurred on dairy farms. In the early 1970s, the grassland area devoted to dairying had a stocking rate of 1.2 LU per hectare. Thereafter, the number of dairy herds declined sharply from about 100,000 to 17,000 at the present time, but the number of dairy cows is about the same as 50 years ago.
The new forestry programme with its greatly increased and longer duration premiums should energise planting and offer an attractive alternative to drystock farming
In consequence, we have the same number of cows producing more than three times as much milk from more than 80 per cent fewer herds than 50 years ago. This is one of the most extraordinary examples of concentration in agricultural production, with the stocking intensity increasing to 2.1 LU per hectare from 1.2 in the early 1970s, with the rate of increase concentrated in the non-quota periods.
By contrast, the level of intensity on most beef cattle farms has grown little over the years. Beef cattle farming is now practised by about 85,000 landholders and is also the predominant enterprise of part-time farmers. The relatively low and stable stocking intensity over the years was favoured by extensification and agri-environmental payments and the decoupled nature of agricultural support. The low profitability over the years from this enterprise also hampered progress. Currently, the dairy enterprise accounts for somewhat more than one quarter of the total grassland area, sheep farming rather less than that, while beef cattle farming in all its forms is practised on the balance.
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The pattern of land use is now facing substantial pushback from environmental pressures, and in consequence we have reached peak intensity. Henceforward, the land use pattern will experience extensification in the grass-based livestock systems, especially dairying, as that enterprise seeks to substitute more land for fertiliser. While small-scale arable farming might make a relatively small imprint on land use, it is likely that the largest encroachment into the present pattern of land use will come from forestry and anaerobic digestion fuelled by grass silage. The latter alternative is capital-intensive and requires more development, but when up and running could utilise large areas of grassland.
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When planning and other issues are resolved, the new forestry programme with its greatly increased and longer duration premiums should energise planting and offer an attractive alternative to drystock farming. Solar panels and onshore wind turbines are also likely to show significant development and will be a more prominent feature of land use.
Farming and intensive farming in particular is considered inimical to biodiversity and responsible for the substantial loss in this feature of the natural environment. This issue received a full airing at the recent Citizens’ Assembly on Biodiversity Loss, where there was a prevailing view that biodiversity was undervalued in agricultural systems and public policy.
We would be cautiously optimistic that the decline in biodiversity might have stalled, with the probable ending of intensification and the dramatic shift in agricultural policy
The Cap Strategic Plan 2023-2027, which includes two heavily funded environmental measures, heralds a new era in addressing biodiversity issues. So while we would be cautiously optimistic that the decline in biodiversity might have stalled, with the probable ending of intensification and the dramatic shift in agricultural policy, the restoration of what has been lost will be a long, arduous, disparate and perhaps unpredictable process.
In conclusion, the change in the land-use landscape from the present depends on how far we project into the future. As we move forward, there will be a gradual decline in the area used for agriculture, a corresponding increase in forestry in its various forms, in grass silage for anaerobic digestion, for solar panels and wind turbines, and actions to create space for nature and non-productive uses.
However, up until the 2050 target for zero emissions, the great bulk of the agricultural area will remain in less intensive farming, with a similar mix of farm products as at present.
Brendan Kearney is an economic consultant
