The six swing states that will decide the US presidential race

The 2024 White House race is now set up to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump – and it will probably be decided in just six swing states.

That is because US presidential elections are decided not by popular vote, but in the electoral college, which convenes shortly after the election. Voters cast ballots to decide who gets their states’ electoral college votes – the number of which roughly reflects each state’s population.

Thus, sparsely populated Alaska has just three electoral college votes, while California has 54. There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs, with 270 needed to win.

The results in most states are predictable – leaving the contest to be settled in just a handful of states, which are about to be inundated with months of campaign ads, presidential visits and Trump rallies.

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Arizona

Big issue: immigration

Electoral college votes: 11

*Polls: Trump 47.5 per cent; Biden 42 per cent

Biden and Trump have already started berating each other over immigration, and it will be a vital issue for voters in Arizona, which shares 600km of border with Mexico. The Biden administration, which is trying to get a bipartisan immigration deal over the line, has conceded that the Arizona border continues to see an increase in crossings, particularly in Tucson, even though overall crossings into the US have begun to taper off. Meanwhile, Trump has said that “illegal immigrants are blowing through into Arizona”. Abortion and false claims from Trump allies that he actually won the race in Arizona in 2020 will also feature in the state’s contest.

Georgia

Big issue: Election interference

Electoral college votes: 16

Polls: Trump 48.5 per cent; Biden 42 per cent

Georgia is host to one of Trump’s four criminal cases: the Fulton County district attorney has indicted the former president for interfering in the 2020 election, alleging multiple conspiracies and violation of Georgia’s racketeering laws. Trump says the indictment is politically motivated. Controversy around the district attorney has overshadowed the case in recent weeks, but if it goes ahead before November, it could overshadow the election. Also crucial in Georgia: voters’ impressions of the economy. The state is booming due to an influx of investment into new industrial sectors, such as battery manufacturing. The White House says this is an example of Bidenomics in action, but Republicans claim Biden is actually hurting the economy.

Michigan

Big issue: Israel and green energy

Electoral college votes: 15

Polls: Trump 46.2 per cent; Biden 42.6 per cent

Biden’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza is a potential problem for the president in places such as Michigan, where more than 100,000 voters – Arab-Americans as well as residents of university towns such as Ann Arbor – registered a big protest vote against him in the state’s primary at the end of February. It was a large number, considering Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the state in 2016 by fewer than 11,000 votes. But the vote in Michigan in November will also hinge on which candidate appeals more to blue-collar workers in sectors such as auto manufacturing. Biden will pitch his re-industrialisation strategy, while Trump lashes out at green energy policies and the promotion of electric vehicles. “If we win Michigan, we win the election,” Trump has said.

Nevada

Big issue: Unemployment and the economy

Electoral college votes: 6

Polls: Trump 48.7 per cent; Biden 41 per cent

Economic messaging will be critical in Nevada, where the Covid-19 pandemic walloped the state’s casinos and the recovery has been slow. Nevada’s unemployment rate of 5.3 per cent is the highest of any US state – some workers are now struggling to be rehired as casinos automate their former jobs – while inflation and prices have remained sticky. Nevada has gone to the Democrats in the past four elections, and the party dominates the state’s legislature and congressional seats. But in 2022, the state elected a Republican governor and current polling puts Trump’s lead over Biden higher in Nevada than in any other swing state.

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Pennsylvania

Big issue: Rust-belt rejuvenation

Electoral college votes: 19

Polls: Biden 45 per cent; Trump 44.2 per cent

Biden makes much of his working-class roots in Scranton, Pennsylvania. But he will have to strike a careful balance as he tries to hold on to the state in November. He will need to court both climate-conscious voters and progressives in cities such as Philadelphia, as well as workers in western Pennsylvania’s rust belt and the state’s vast shale gas fracking industry. Unions and even some members of Biden’s Democratic Party have been critical of the White House move this year to halt new exports of liquefied natural gas, saying it could hurt local industry. Trump has touted American oil and gas while criticising Biden’s green policies – part of his pitch to states such as Pennsylvania. The fate of the state’s electoral college votes could be decided by which comes out on top: Pennsylvania’s more urban voters in the east, or its blue-collar rural voters in the west.

Wisconsin

Big issue: Abortion

Electoral college votes: 10

Polls: Trump 46.4 per cent; Biden 45.4 per cent

Wisconsin tipped the scales in 2020, putting Biden over 270 in the electoral college by less than 20,000 votes. In 2024, Democrats will campaign on abortion rights, a strategy that has already featured in elections in the state and helped put one proponent on Wisconsin’s highest court last year. Republicans in the legislature, meanwhile, are trying to further tighten access to abortions. Wisconsin has a strong agricultural economy, but it is women and young adults in college towns that Democrats think will carry their vote. Recent polling offers Republicans fruitful attack lines, with a survey from Milwaukee’s Marquette University Law School pointing to Biden’s age and record in office as weak spots. Wisconsin’s 10 electoral college votes may, however, be decided by which party can get their supporters to the polls: Marquette’s poll showed just 49 per cent of registered voters in Wisconsin were enthusiastic about voting, down from 70 per cent four years ago. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024

* RealClearPolitics polling average

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