US aid for Ukraine: Will it get through Congress?

Joe Biden has urged the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives to bring a sweeping $95 billion national security Bill that includes some $60 billion of military aid for Ukraine to a vote “immediately”.

The Bill passed the Senate early on Tuesday. But the measure, which also includes billions in aid for Israel and Taiwan as well as humanitarian assistance for Gaza, faces an uncertain future in the House.

What is at stake for Kyiv?

US support has been critical in supplying the Ukrainian military in its fight to reclaim land captured by Russian forces. But Kyiv is running low on critical munitions and poised to run out of artillery shells essential to the brutal conflict unless Congress authorises more aid – which is partly used to buy US-made weapons.

But Republican opposition to the aid package has delayed its passage for months, raising fears in Ukraine and among allies in Europe. One senior US military official warned that the delay risked creating an “air bubble” or “gap in the hose” of supplies to Kyiv.

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Biden on Tuesday referred to those concerns, warning of “Ukrainian soldiers [running] out of artillery shells, Ukrainian units rationing rounds of ammunition to defend themselves”. Passing the Bill would send a message to the world that “America can be trusted, America can be relied upon, and America stands up for freedom”, he added.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also weighed in, calling for House Republicans to make an “equally strong moral choice” and pass the Bill.

Who is Mike Johnson and why does he matter to Ukraine?

The voting schedule on the House floor is tightly controlled by its speaker, Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, who only assumed the position in October and has said he will not bring the Senate-passed bill up for a vote.

Johnson – an ally of Donald Trump – has criticised the Senate version because it does not include provisions to tighten security at the US-Mexico border. Ironically, a previous bipartisan compromise that did include immigration controls alongside funding for Ukraine floundered after it was trashed by Trump, who has more to gain during the election year from a festering border problem.

Trump has yet to weigh in on the new Senate-passed Bill. But Johnson has said the Senate “should have gone back to the drawing board to amend the current Bill to include real border security” – a statement that leaves the Bill in limbo.

Why does Johnson oppose aid for Ukraine?

Republicans on Capitol Hill are deeply divided on aid for Kyiv – reflecting the influence of media personalities such as Tucker Carlson, who has for months lambasted Zelenskiy and recently conducted a lengthy interview in Moscow with Vladimir Putin.

Republican Ukraine sceptics, who claim without evidence that US aid is being misspent, have been emboldened by Trump, the party’s likely presidential candidate, who claims he could end the war “in a day” without providing specifics, and whose isolationist stance has become mainstream in his party.

Trump sent shockwaves across the Atlantic when he told a crowd of supporters over the weekend that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” if Nato allies failed to meet defence spending targets.

Not all Republicans share such views, including the 22 who voted for the Bill in the Senate. Their leader Mitch McConnell has urged Johnson to allow a House vote on it.

“We’ve heard all kinds of rumours about whether the House supports Ukraine or doesn’t,” McConnell told Politico. “It seems to me that the easy way to solve that would be to vote. And I hope the Speaker will find a way to allow the House to work its will on the issue of Ukraine aid and the other parts of the bill as well.”

In a radio interview on Tuesday, Republican Andy Biggs, a member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus who opposes more aid for Ukraine, acknowledged that the Bill would win a majority in the chamber.

“If it were to get to the floor, it would pass,” Biggs said. “Let’s just be frank about that.”

But Johnson has a dilemma. He will face pressure from defence hawks within his party, moderate members in swing districts, and Republican allies in the business community to put the Bill up for a vote. Yet doing so would risk a backlash from Trump – and potentially a move by the party’s right flank to oust him.

Is there any way to go around Johnson?

Washington was buzzing on Tuesday over the possible use of a so-called discharge petition, a procedural tool that would allow Democrats to force a vote on the Bill. If at least four House Republicans signed on to the petition, it would override Johnson and allow the Senate Bill to be brought to the House floor.

Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrats’ leader in the House, did not use the phrase “discharge petition” in a letter he sent to colleagues on Tuesday, but he vowed to use “every available legislative tool” to get the Bill over the line.

“Traditional Republicans must now put America first, and stand up to pro-Putin extremists in the House who apparently want Russia to win,” he wrote.

On Tuesday, Johnson said he hoped that move would not happen, reiterating his stance that “national security begins with our own border”.

Can Biden push it through on his own?

Biden cannot force the hand of Congress. But the president has a bully pulpit – and he is using it.

“I call on the Speaker to let the full House speak its mind, and not let allow a minority of the most extreme voices in the House to block this bill even from being voted on,” Biden said on Tuesday.

“For Republicans in Congress who think they can oppose funding for Ukraine and not be held accountable, history is watching,” Biden added. “Failure to support Ukraine at this critical moment will never be forgotten.”

Congress has the “power of the purse”, making it impossible under the US Constitution for Biden to appropriate new money for Ukraine on his own. He can draw down existing US stockpiles, but those weapons are running short and many are needed for other contingencies.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan said last week that the Biden administration was not focused on finding ways to circumvent Congress.

“We’re focused on passing a bipartisan support package for Ukraine that will provide it with the tools and capabilities it needs to continue to defend effectively and take back territory that Russia currently occupies.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024

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