:quality(70):focal(1849x1484:1859x1494)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/JXOTOMNTO65KOB7UEWYULH4J6A.jpg)
:quality(70)/s3.amazonaws.com/arc-authors/irishtimes/06b1d091-4897-4dce-b93a-f7b343434e87.png)
This is my final letter from Washington. I will shortly be returning to the Dublin office to take up a new role.
It has been a fascinating time to be in the United States and to observe as it struggles to determine what type of country it will be in the future.
Americans are some of the most friendly and generous people you will meet anywhere. But politically the US is as divided and polarised as ever.
The scars from the tumultuous 2020 election, the riot at the US Capitol and allegations of a conspiracy to prevent the transfer of power have never gone away. The coming months will likely see more momentous events that will test further the cohesiveness of the country.
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/2DFVBOW3LIQHQ3MAY5QVQFGPJI.jpg)
:quality(70):focal(2632x1192:2642x1202)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/EQ35FG5QEOKSTKYCC3DVFWOYHI.jpg)
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/2IWCW6CNEXD4DH5W33LBMRMAWY.jpg)
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/EOH5RFFZKIH32WXOURZHBDIBCI.jpg)
[ Democrats see the hand of Trump behind impeachment move against Biden ]
Donald Trump is scheduled to be a defendant in four criminal trials, while President Joe Biden could face moves to impeach him.
By the end of next year the country will have reached a turning point. Trump will either be on the way back to power or will have been defeated for a second time. Given his age, 77, defeat could mark the beginning of the end of a political era.
There would undoubtedly be plenty of Trump-like characters seeking to take up his mantle but would his Maga – make America great again – movement be the same without him at the helm?
And, of course, there is the possibility that Trump could be facing jail arising from one or more of his trials.
If Biden loses, especially to Trump, it could unleash extraordinary levels of soul-searching and finger-pointing within his Democratic Party.
I am frequently asked by people in Ireland whether Trump could really become president again. The election is 11 months away and all the usual caveats apply that things could change dramatically. However, as of now, there is a credible path back to the White House for Trump.
After the November 2022 midterm elections, Trump appeared weaker than he had ever been. Candidates backed by the former president had generally fared badly and there seemed a mood in the Republican Party that it was time to move on.
A year later, Trump dominates his party. He is 40 points ahead in polls in some states to secure its nomination for next year’s presidential election.
The criminal prosecutions – for allegedly seeking to subvert the 2020 election, over claims he falsified business records to cover up an affair with a porn star and in relation to retaining classified documents – have done him no harm politically.
In fact, they seem to have electrified his campaign.
[ Donald Trump mugshot: Snapshot of the president who tested the contours of American governance ]
Some polls in Iowa – where the Republican caucus in mid-January will kick off the primaries season – and elsewhere suggest he is attracting people who never voted for him previously.
Rather than repelling supporters, the criminal cases seem to be attracting new ones to the Trump campaign.
At the same time the coalition of voters that brought Biden to power seems to be fraying.
The presidential election is, of course, determined not necessarily by the candidate who secures the most votes but rather through the Electoral College system.
A handful of states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona will likely decide the outcome.
A series of polls suggests Trump is ahead in key battleground states.
Biden won in 2020 on the back of support in particular from young people, women in the suburbs and black voters, but he now appears to be losing ground among these groups.
A poll this week found 20 per cent of black voters would vote for someone other than Trump or Biden.
Voters overall appear uneasy about Biden’s age – he will be almost 82 on polling day – and he is receiving no credit for the country’s economic achievements such as low unemployment. Stocks on Wall Street reached record levels this week but the hangover from the spike in inflation last year has by no means abated. As of now concerns over the cost of living and high interest rates are influencing voting intentions.
The Gaza war is also having an impact. Biden embraced Israel after the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7th. However, many people, including many young people, are horrified at the civilian Palestinian casualties and are blaming the White House.
Recently I was in contact with a Democrat activist I know well and was very surprised to hear this person refer dismissively to “genocide Joe”.
The danger for Biden is not that whole cohorts of young people will suddenly back Trump, it is that they will not vote at all.
They will also have other big-name candidates to consider. Robert Kennedy is polling well as an independent. There may well be others. It remains uncertain from whom those running as independents will take more votes.
Events, of course, can change the picture. Trump’s rise in the polls has come at a time when he is not on television all the time. That will change as the primaries election season gets under way.
The issue of abortion remains a powerful force.
The US supreme court will rule, probably in early July, on whether one of the two drugs used in medication abortions should continue to be administered. This could bring the abortion issue right back to the fore.
The court has also been asked to adjudicate on Trump’s claim that he has immunity from prosecution. Any ruling that suggested Trump was above the law would cause consternation. Would Americans want to see Trump as, in effect, a king?
Expect a lot of focus on what a second Trump term would look like. He has long seemed to admire strongman leaders such as Vladimir Putin in Russiaand Xi Jinping in China. His critics have already argued that a second Trump administration could mark the beginning of an American dictatorship.
What would Trump mark II mean for the current world order? He maintains he could resolve the Ukraine war in a single day – his opponents contend this would mean handing the country over to Putin.
Would Trump withdraw from any climate change measures? He says he wants to “drill, drill, drill” for oil. Would he pull the US out of Nato? And what would that mean for security in Europe? And, for example, would Ireland be forced to take defence issues more seriously in future?
As I leave Washington, it seems the US is approaching a turning point. Over the next 12 months it may become clearer what this will mean for the country and the rest of the world.