‘Bibi’s finished’: Binyamin Netanyahu loses core support after Hamas assault on Israel

Ya’akov Levin was a lifelong supporter of Likud, the centre-right party of Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister. But after Hamas’s bloody rampage through southern Israel on October 7th, he says he will never vote for it again.

“Netanyahu sold himself as Mr Security and then this happened,” the Jerusalem wine merchant said. “He has to go.”

Israelis are rallying to the flag following the deadliest attack on their country in its 75-year history. With 1,400 people killed in the assault, according to Israeli officials, there is broad support for the ground invasion of Gaza and Netanyahu’s war aim of destroying Hamas.

Despite this rush of patriotism, even those on the right are furious with the prime minister. The anger is palpable in the narrow lanes of Machane Yehuda, a big covered market in downtown Jerusalem that has long been a Likud stronghold and is home to Levin’s wine shop.

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“Bibi’s finished,” he said, using the nickname Israelis often use for their leader. “No way can he stay in power after this.”

Six times prime minister, Netanyahu has outfoxed his rivals to stay at the pinnacle of Israeli politics for much of the past 14 years. He achieved that by positioning himself as “Mr Security” and “Mr Economy” – the man Israelis could count on to maintain the country’s military strength and reach an accommodation with Arab states while fostering growth and overseeing a booming tech sector.

But that image has been badly shaken by a massacre that exposed Israel as woefully unprepared for an attack on its soil and an ensuing conflict that has severely damaged its economic prospects.

Much of the public’s frustration with Netanyahu centres on his steadfast refusal to apologise for Israel’s failure to foresee or prevent the October 7th attack.

A poll in the newspaper Maariv late last month found 80 per cent of Israelis wanted him to take responsibility for the intelligence and security failures that preceded the assault.

He has consistently failed to do so, saying only that tough questions will be asked of everyone after the war “and that includes me”.

While Likud’s party machinery has so far rallied round the premier, his recalcitrance is fuelling a broader shift away from the party. Another Maariv poll on October 14th showed that if elections were held now, opposition parties would score a huge win over the governing right wing coalition.

Only 29 per cent of respondents said Netanyahu was their preferred prime minister, a steep drop from before the war, while 48 per cent chose Benny Gantz, leader of the centre-right National Unity grouping and a member of Israel’s five-man war cabinet.

“Netanyahu was never at such a low point, ever,” said Tamar Hermann, senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI).

Aviv Bushinsky, a Netanyahu adviser-turned-political analyst, has his own theory about why the prime minister is refusing to shoulder any blame.

“He’s worried it would become a soundbite that would be played ad nauseam and harm his prospects of remaining in power,” he said.

If that is Netanyahu’s tactic, it appears to be backfiring.

“People say – our soldiers are risking their lives in Gaza, thousands have lost their homes, Moody’s, Fitch and S&P might downgrade our credit rating. And all Netanyahu can think about is politics,” Bushinsky said.

Public displays of anger at Likud have been dramatic. Late last month the party’s headquarters in Tel Aviv was defaced with fake blood, as well as a collage of the 242 hostages who were taken by Hamas. Photographs of Netanyahu’s face were also smeared with bloody handprints.

Popular dissatisfaction hit new heights after Netanyahu said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, in late October that Israel’s military and security chiefs had failed to provide him with any warning of the Hamas attack.

It elicited a furious response, with Gantz insisting he retract it.

“When we are at war, leadership means showing responsibility,” he wrote on X. Netanyahu deleted the offending post and apologised.

The spat, just hours after the first ground incursions into Gaza, incensed many Israelis. Since then, fierce battles have raged as Israeli troops advance on Gaza City. More than 9,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began, according to health officials in Gaza.

A few days after Netanyahu’s deleted post, a poll published by the IDI found that only 7 per cent of Israelis trusted him to direct the war, compared with 74 per cent who chose the heads of the army.

Support for Netanyahu was little better among right wing voters than the broader population, rising to just 10 per cent.

“In view of the scandal with the posts, people just feel something’s really going wrong with him,” said Hermann. “His conduct is just amazingly unexpected under the circumstances.”

Some Likud supporters had fallen out of love with Netanyahu long before that latest incident. A swathe of voters were infuriated by his decision late last year to form a coalition with Israel’s most right wing parties.

The feeling of alienation only intensified after he launched a deeply divisive campaign to limit the powers of the judiciary – a move that triggered months of mass protests.

Efraim Podoksik, a Jerusalem-based political scientist, said he had always voted Likud but changed his mind after Netanyahu pivoted to ultranationalist parties.

“He basically submitted to the demands of his populist, far-right partners,” he added. “And they go against what a centre-right party like Likud should stand for.”

Podoksik said his misgivings about Netanyahu’s government only deepened after its response to the October 7th disaster.

“The government turned out to be dysfunctional. Too many in it are just incompetent ideologues.”

Yet there is still some support for Netanyahu. At Machane Yehuda, many traders said he should not be blamed for the Hamas attack.

“It was a failure of the whole system,” said Shimon Ozeri, a butcher. “You can’t single out Netanyahu.”

“Yes, we were caught with our pants down,” said Shimon Moshe, a greengrocer. “Yes, there should be a full investigation after the war. But things will be even worse if Bibi were to go now.”

Some think Netanyahu is betting that Israel will defeat Hamas and he can stay as prime minister by taking credit for the victory, even winning another term at the next election, scheduled for 2026. But Hermann is sceptical.

“Winston Churchill won the second World War and he was still kicked out,” she said.

Others think it might be too soon to write him off.

“He’s always been seen as ‘King Bibi’ – this magician who’ll always pull another rabbit out of the hat,” said Gideon Rahat, professor of politics at Hebrew University. “You can never know with Netanyahu.”

– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023