Middle EastAnalysis

Israel-Hamas war: Gulf states walk geopolitical tightrope as popular Arab sentiment condemns bombardment of Gaza

Gulf rulers fear expanded war pitting the US and Israel against Iran’s allies

Arab Gulf states are seeking to maintain their distance from Israel’s war on Gaza while expressing support for the Palestinians under bombardment and pledging funds for Gaza.

The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have normalised ties with Israel. But they have been compelled to adopt a hard line against Israel by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar – countries which have not normalised their relations with the Israelis.

Participants in Arab demonstrations – from the Gulf to the Atlantic – against the attack on Gaza expected condemnation from rulers who have never contributed troops to regional wars against Israel and instead focused on economic advancement and commercial enrichment.

But the 2011 Arab Spring unrest demonstrated to these rulers that they cannot afford to ignore opinion on issues which have gripped the Arab public. Before the Gaza war, 84 per cent of Arabs rejected normalisation with Israel, according to a poll conducted by the Washington-based Arab Centre.

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Speaking on behalf of its six members (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain), the Gulf Co-operation Council has demanded an immediate ceasefire and an end to Israeli operations in Gaza. It has promised $100 million in urgent humanitarian aid. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar have already flown medical and food supplies to Egypt for delivery to Gaza.

The Gulf rulers fear an expanded war pitting the US and Israel against Iran’s allies. Hizbullah rockets fired into Israel could draw crisis-ridden Lebanon into the conflict. Iraqi Shia militias could target US troops based in that country and Syria. Yemeni Houthis could strike Saudi and Emirati oil installations and ports. Gulf airports, which are highly vulnerable to attack, have made the region a global transit, trade and tourist hub.

Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has pressed other Arab leaders to “intensify international and regional efforts to stop the escalation in Gaza and its surroundings and prevent its regional expansion”. Determined to press on with economic and social reforms in his Vision 30 modernisation plan, he has re-established ties with Iran with the aim of easing regional tensions. He fears disruption of his plans for the kingdom.

Anwar Gargash, senior diplomatic adviser to the Emirati president Mohammed bin Zayef al-Nahyan, summed up Gulf policy when he said: “It’s our paramount duty to protect homelands and their achievements.”

While going along with the majority, Qatar has assumed the proactive role of intermediary in negotiations. Doha has helped secure the opening of the Egyptian border crossing into Gaza for humanitarian aid convoys. It has also helped to negotiate the release of some hostages held by Hamas.

Qatar is in a strong position to carry out these tasks. Qatar’s vast al-Udeid air base hosts the headquarters of the US central command and US and British air force groups which have been engaged in regional conflicts since the 1991 Gulf war.

Unlike other Gulf states, Qatar has long-standing connections with the Muslim Brotherhood, the parent movement of Gaza’s Hamas. Qatar has supported the Hamas administration in Gaza by paying salaries of civil servants, funding fuel for Gaza’s power plant, and supplying food and medicine for the poor.

Qatar’s ruler sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani on Tuesday warned the international community not to grant Israel “unrestricted authorisation to kill” Palestinians while battling Hamas and reiterated the Arab call to de-escalate the conflict.