EU sees revival of 2015 US-Iran nuclear deal as an opportunity not to be missed

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has launched an urgent appeal to the US and Iran to sign the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for lifting sanctions.

In a forceful declaration published by the Financial Times, Borrell said that after 15 months of EU-sponsored negotiations in Vienna, he has “concluded that the space for additional significant compromises has been exhausted”. He now has a text that “addresses in precise detail the sanctions lifting as well as the nuclear steps needed to restore the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action]” which the Trump administration abandoned in 2018.

“This text represents the best possible deal,” he said. Although “not perfect”, it addresses all “essential elements and includes compromises by all sides. Now is the time to seize this unique opportunity.”

In response, Iranian chief negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani tweeted that Tehran had its own ideas “in substance and form” about finalising the deal, without revealing them.

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US State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters that Washington was reviewing the “draft understanding” Borrell shared with Iran and other parties to the 2015 deal and would respond directly to the EU.

Borrell admitted the JCPOA is “politically polarising in Washington” due to opposition in advance of midterm congressional elections, while there are reservations in Tehran about returning to a deal which could be abandoned in 2025 by a Republican successor to the Biden administration.

He argued a return to the JCPOA will benefit all parties and avoid further turbulence in the region. He pointed out the JCPOA is “a cornerstone of the global non-proliferation architecture”. As a signatory of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Iran has forsworn nuclear weapons and had, until 2019, submitted to the world’s most intrusive and successful monitoring programmes.

Since then, Iran has exceeded the JCPOA limits of uranium enrichment of 3.67 per cent purity and stocks of 300kg by accumulating 238kg of 20 per cent and 43kg of 60 per cent enriched material. From the latter it is relatively easy to enrich to the 90 per cent level needed for weapons, although experts contend it could take up to two years to build bombs.

If the JCPOA is revived, US president Joe Biden could claim a victory at a time his approval rating has plunged to 31 per cent, and Iran could reap rich economic and political benefits.

Tehran could double its oil exports to 2 million barrels a day, retrieve assets frozen in foreign banks, and end international isolation. Budding relations with formerly estranged Saudi Arabia and the Emirates could flower.

Failure to rescue the deal would prompt the US and Israel to step up measures against Iran, while its citizens would continue to suffer from inflation, unemployment and shortages of essential imported items.

Scrapping the JCPOA would also be a big setback for non-proliferation efforts. Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman warned in 2018, “if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible,” although this would violate Riyadh’s commitment to the non-proliferation treaty. Saudi Arabia is currently negotiating with South Korea over the construction of two nuclear power plants and uranium enrichment facilities.