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Iran and Russia have warned Turkey against mounting a proposed military offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces in northern Syria. These warnings were delivered at a summit in Tehran bringing together Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamaeni and President Ebrahim Raisi and his Russian and Turkish counterparts Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Ayatollah Khamenei told Mr Erdogan that military action would be “definitely to the detriment of Syria, Turkey and the region” and could exacerbate terrorism, while Mr Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia opposed any action that violated Syria’s territorial integrity.
In their final statement the three presidents reaffirmed their commitment to counter “terrorism in all forms” but “rejected all attempts to create new realities on the ground under the pretext of combating terrorism”, although this is the objective of the planned Turkish operation.
Since they also pledged “to stand against separatist agendas” and vowed to protect Syrian sovereignty, Mr Erdogan might be deterred from mounting an early operation against the Kurds.
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He believes such action could boost his flagging popularity ahead of the 2023 presidential poll, which coincides with the centenary of the founding of the modern Turkish state.
As the Kurds’ sponsor, the US has also urged Ankara to scrap its plan to invade the Kurdish-held Syrian border towns of Manbij and Tel Rifaat. A Turkish attack could compel US troops deployed with Kurdish allies to join forces with Iranian and Russian forces to resist the Turkish onslaught.
Syrian army units and allied pro-Iranian militiamen have already reinforced Kurdish fighters in these two towns, while Russian military aircraft have shifted to an airfield near the eastern Syrian city of Hassakeh in readiness for a Turkish offensive.
Mr Erdogan has launched three invasions of Syria since 2016 with the aim of establishing a 30km-wide “security zone” free of Kurdish fighters who, Ankara claims, are tied to Turkey’s secessionist Kurdish Workers’ Party. He also seeks to resettle in this zone Syrian refugees whose presence is resented in Turkey.
Tehran, Moscow and Ankara have collaborated during Syria’s war although Iran and Russia have supported the Assad government and Turkey has backed insurgents and jihadis and based them in Turkish-occupied enclaves where they have been attacked by Kurdish fighters.
A fresh Turkish offensive could undermine Ankara’s co-operation with Russia and Iran on other issues.
During the summit Mr Erdogan and Mr Putin failed to agree to open a safe route across the Black Sea for the transport of Ukrainian grain to foreign markets to alleviate hunger in this region and Africa, according to UN spokesman Farhan Haq .
Ankara’s proposed increase in trade with Iran to $30 billion (€29.4bn), including in the defence sector, and Tehran’s offer to renew a 25-year agreement to supply gas to Turkey could fail to materialise.
Russia and Iran, however, appear on track to boost co-operation. Iran’s national oil company and Russia’s Gazprom concluded a $40 billion deal to develop oil and gas fields in defiance of sanctions. Having suffered US and international sanctions for decades, Iran has also offered to help Russia navigate economically-crippling measures.