Scholz suggests he saw Putin’s energy cuts coming

German chancellor Olaf Scholz caught a Berlin audience off guard this week by insisting he was not at all surprised that Russia has tried to use energy to blackmail its western neighbours.

Two weeks after multiple detonations, believed to be sabotage, ruined the undersea Nord Stream pipelines, Poland has discovered a leak in a major crude oil pipeline between Russia and Germany.

News of the latest leak came after the German leader insisted he had no doubts that Russian president Vladimir Putin would “use energy as a weapon”.

“I was always sure he would do that,” he told a conference of German engineers in Berlin.

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When he became chancellor in December of last year, Mr Scholz said he had asked government departments to run through a scenario of what would happen if Russian energy supplies to Germany were halted.

“That was at a time when, I think it is fair to say, most didn’t think that possible, but I thought it possible,” he said.

His remarks caught many in political Berlin by surprise. During the 2021 election campaign – and after becoming chancellor last December – Mr Scholz echoed arguments used by his predecessor, Angela Merkel, to defend Germany’s energy dependency on Russia.

Mr Scholz insisted repeatedly in public that the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea were “private sector projects”, despite being controlled by state-owned Russian energy conglomerates.

Before last February’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany drew 55 per cent of its gas from Russia, which has dropped now to under 10 per cent.

During the four-term Merkel era – in which Mr Scholz served twice as a minister – Berlin dismissed anger and anxiety in Kyiv and Warsaw over the Nord Stream pipelines which bypassed their territory.

This week’s remarks by Mr Scholz have prompted critical responses from members of his current three-way coalition.

Free Democrat (FDP) defence analyst Marcus Faber told the Bild tabloid he was “delighted that now even the chancellor understands that the war criminals in the Kremlin use energy as a weapon”.

Green Party foreign policy analyst Robin Wagener said it had been “clear for a long time that Russia would use energy against us in its hybrid warfare.

“This was ignored by previous cabinet members,” he said. “I would like now . . . a clear commitment that people will learn from their mistakes.”

Of Germany’s main political figures, only former Green Party co-leader Annalena Baerbock, now foreign minister, previously warned of the dangers of Germany’s close energy ties with Russia. In an election debate last year with Mr Scholz, she insisted Germany cannot “duck out” and declare Nord Stream to be “purely a business project”.

“We must not be naive,” she added then, warning that “Germany is dependent on Russian gas” and that Mr Putin’s aim was to “use gas pipelines for political purposes”.

In her first year as foreign minister Ms Baerbock has remained the most self-critical voice over Germany’s energy politics. Last week in Warsaw she conceded that Berlin did not take seriously Polish warnings about Russia in the past.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, Polish authorities said a leak detected in one of the Druzhba pipelines, bringing crude oil from Russia to Europe, was most likely caused by an accident. The leak, detected on Tuesday evening, occurred roughly 70km from the central Polish city of Plock.

Poland’s pipeline authorities Pern said it had switched off pumping on the damaged line, which runs to Germany, while pumping through the other line continued as normal. So far the cause of the damage is not yet known, but a Polish government official said the damage was probably “accidental”.

The pipeline supplies two refineries in Leuna and Schwedt. The latter refinery, which supplies 90 per cent of oil consumed used in the Berlin-Brandenburg region – including the capita’s airport – was previously controlled by Russia’s Rosneft. Last month it was taken over by the German state.

On Wednesday Vladimir Putin blamed western powers for energy disruptions caused by his war on Ukraine. “Ordinary Europeans are suffering,” he told an energy conference in Moscow. “Like in the middle ages, the population has begun to stock up on firewood for the winter.”